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AKECH ANNOUNCES MURDER, TREASON, AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY CHARGES AGAINST MACHAR IN SOUTH SUDAN, AND UK RIGHT-WING PROTESTORS INJURE AT LEAST 26 MPS OFFICERS DURING UNITE THE KINGDOM RALLY

September 11-17, 2025 | Issue 35 - Extremism Team

Valentina Gonzalez Garzon, Mireia Fonseca, Candela Echeverria, Jacob Robison

Tom Rochester, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor

 

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Court Ruling[1]


Date: September 11, 2025

Location: South Sudan

Parties involved: South Sudan; South Sudan Vice President Riek Machar; South Sudan Justice Minister Joseph Geng Akech; South Sudan government forces; South Sudan judicial system; armed Nuer militia group supportive of Machar Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO); disenfranchised groups; South Sudan civilians; Machar’s supporters; South Sudanese militant groups; opposition leaders in South Sudan

The event: Akech announced murder, treason, and crimes against humanity charges against Machar.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

  • The charges against Machar are likely to shift public perception, portraying the legal system as a partisan political tool. This portrayal will likely erode citizens' trust in the judiciary's independence as irregularities in the prosecution grow, compelling them to move from suspicion to outright distrust of the courts' ability to resolve disputes fairly. Citizens will likely interpret these prosecutions as strategies to suppress military or political opposition, likely compelling disenfranchised groups such as SPLM-IO to rally behind opposition leaders rather than seek judicial remedies. This dynamic will likely prolong the country's peace and security challenges, as judicial manipulation will likely push disputes to the battlefield instead of legal resolutions, reducing the courts' ability to mediate conflict effectively. 

  • South Sudanese militant groups, particularly SPLM-IO, will likely leverage these charges to bolster recruitment by portraying the state as hostile to Machar and his supporters. These groups will likely use propaganda tactics to amplify narratives of political injustice, likely accelerating popular support that strengthens recruitment pipelines. These narratives are likely to frame the population as politically persecuted, likely positioning the resistance movements as defenders of civilian interests, and very likely encouraging supporters to take up arms. This wave of recruitment will likely expand militant capacity and heighten the risk of armed clashes with government forces, likely escalating violence that undermines prospects for peaceful resolution.


Date: September 14, 2025

Location: London, England

Parties involved: England; London-based law enforcement agency Metropolitan Police Service (MPS); MPS police officers; MPS frontline officers; experienced personnel within the MPS; right-wing protestors; far-right groups in England; hostile actors within England’s far-right groups; English civilians; England immigrants

The event: Right-wing protestors attacked and injured at least 26 MPS officers during the Unite the Kingdom rally.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • The attacks against police officers during the protest will likely indicate vulnerabilities in the MPS’s capacity to sustain effective public order policing, likely emboldening far-right groups to exploit security gaps in future demonstrations. Hostile actors within far-right groups will likely capitalize on the MPS’s limited manpower and riot-control equipment by coordinating sudden escalations of violence and deliberately targeting vulnerable units to maximize disruption. This increased pressure will likely overwhelm frontline officers, fueling their discontent over the MPS’s inadequate protection and unsafe work conditions, likely prompting them to transfer out of operational roles. The loss of experienced personnel will very likely reduce the MPS’s decision-making speed and situational awareness during mass protests, likely heightening risks to police officers and English civilians.

  • Repeated attacks against MPS officers during anti-immigration protests will likely erode public confidence in law enforcement, creating escalating cycles of confrontation between protesters and police. This declining confidence will likely intensify protesters' perceptions that officers are acting against their anti-immigration cause, creating a sense of betrayal among protesters. This perception of disloyalty will likely deem the officers as enemies to their cause, encouraging the prolonging of protests and sustained confrontational intensity. Greater civilian willingness to confront officers will likely generate more self-organized protests, creating prolonged unrest through repeated police engagement and increasing community vulnerability to crime.

[1] Trial, generated by a third party image database

[2] South Sudan vice-president charged with murder and treason, BBC, September 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07vkln2ezro 

[3] Dozens of officers injured as up to 150,000 join Tommy Robinson rally, BBC, September 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwydezxl0xlo 

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