ATTACKERS TARGETED A MILITARY BASE IN COLOMBIA THROUGH THE USE OF DRONES; AND IN SYRIA, UNIDENTIFIED GUNMEN CARRIED OUT HIT-AND-RUN ATTACKS AGAINST MINISTRY OF DEFENSE PERSONNEL

July 16-22, 2026 | Issue 29 - SOUTHCOM and CENTCOM Teams

Giovanni Lamberti, Blaise Liess II, Christian Jackson, Lavinia Ansalone, Ilias Tzanetoulakos, Natalie Goldwasser

Jaydn Burgin, Embedded Editor; Ben Joshua Gentemann, Junior Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Drone Approaching^[1]

Date: July 16, 2026

Location: Tibù, Norte de Santander Department, Colombia

Parties involved: Colombia; Colombian military; Colombian security forces; military; parent groups; illegal armed groups; unidentified armed groups; different groups; armed factions; splinter groups; dissidents; human personnel; cell-level actors; sentries; rural communities

The event: Unidentified armed groups attacked a Colombian military base using explosive drones and a car bomb.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Illegal armed groups’ weaponization of remote-controlled technology will likely expand operational reach to previously inaccessible targets, likely challenging state authority. The increasing use of drones in explosive attacks on military facilities will likely reduce the need for human personnel on the ground, likely decreasing operational risk, allowing strikes from protected positions. Expanded remote capability will likely promote illegal armed group presence in isolated areas, likely allowing them to overwhelm the Colombian security forces’ counterterrorism operations. Illegal armed groups will likely immediately increase the frequency of drone attacks as their operational advantage over state security will unlikely remain long-term.   

• Armed factions will likely use drone attacks to strengthen their independent power in rural communities to exert control in areas detached from state policy, likely demanding separate terms for disarmament or ceasefire. Different groups' agendas and drone strategies will likely hinder the predictability of strike targets, likely preventing effective counterterrorism operations. Continued upgrades in operational drone use will likely fragment state resources and diplomatic adaptability, likely eroding negotiating power and prompting locally driven approaches. As command continues to decentralize to cell-level actors, these splinter groups will likely operate with less cohesion than their parent groups, likely reducing their predictability and promoting competing interests during negotiations as faction intentions and objectives vary.

• The attack will likely reveal inadequate defense measures against asymmetric attacks on military bases, likely leaving them vulnerable to repeated violence. The current doctrinal implementation of sentries will likely be insufficient in countering drone attacks, likely allowing dissidents to exploit sentries’ innate human limitations of rest, potential complacency, and sensory caps. These biological constraints on human personnel will likely allow dissidents to exploit sensory limitations, enhancing attacks and targeting, likely circumventing challenges of exposure. Dissidents’ tactical advantage over Colombian security forces will likely allow drone attacks to disrupt defensive positions and delay responses, likely creating opportunities for follow-on ambushes, raids, and assaults.       

Date: July 19, 2026

Location: Near Manbij City, Aleppo Province, Syria

Parties involved: Syria; Syrian authorities; state authorities; government personnel; member of the Ministry of Defense; member of the Syrian 72nd Division; Syrian Forces; Syrian security forces; Syrian security personnel; ISIS; escapees from the Al- detention camp; unidentified gunmen; armed groups; armed factions; terrorist groups; terrorist cells; attackers; local populations; civilians; civilian casualties; public The event: Unidentified gunmen carried out two hit-and-run attacks against a member of the Ministry of Defense and a member of the 72nd Division.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Armed groups’ use of hit-and-run attacks will likely indicate a focus on targeting Syrian security personnel, very likely supporting the ability of armed groups, such as ISIS, to slow down Syrian security forces from identifying attackers and disrupting their networks. Motorized ambush attacks will likely allow these groups to preserve personnel and equipment for future assaults, likely increasing the rate at which they can carry out attacks. Targeted hit-and-run attacks will likely result in fewer civilian casualties compared to other attacks like car bombings, likely limiting local populations’ interaction and information sharing with Syrian security forces. Reduced cooperative support by the public combined with the anonymity of hit-and-run attacks will very likely complicate counterterrorism operations, likely reducing Syrian security forces’ ability to identify the unidentified gunmen.

• Attacks against Syrian security personnel will likely indicate operational security challenges in the Syrian Forces, likely increasing terrorist cells' confidence to conduct similar attacks. Without corrective policies and new security measures on protecting personnel’s identities and locations, hit-and-run attacks will likely remain a threat to government personnel. Armed factions and terrorist groups, such as ISIS, emboldened by the recent successes, will likely scale their attacks and increase casualties, underlining the continuing challenges of state authorities to contain their cells and disrupt the targeting tactics against government personnel. Exposed limited intelligence and military support available to the Syrian authorities will likely prompt ISIS to accelerate recruitment strategies among escapees from the Al-Hol detention camp, enhancing operational capabilities stemming from a significant personnel upscaling.

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[1] Drone, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Military base in Tibú, Norte de Santander, attacked with explosive drones and car bombs: this is what we know, Infobae, July 2026, https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/07/16/atacan-con-drones-explosivos-y-carro-bomba-la-base-militar-de-tibu-norte-de-santander-esto-se-sabe/ (Translated by Google)

[3] ISIS resurgence | Member of Ministry of Defence killed and another injured in two separate incidents in eastern Aleppo countryside, Syrian Observatory For Human Rights, July 2026, https://www.syriahr.com/en/384499/