EU WARNS THAT AFGHANISTAN FACES SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES, AND THE SPANISH POLICE ARREST FUTURO VEGETAL MEMBERS, AFTER THEY VANDALISED THE SAGRADA FAMILIA IN BARCELONA

August 28-September 3, 2025 | Issue 33 - Emergency Management, Health, and Hazards (EMH2) Team

Giovanni Lamberti, Leon Kille, Camilla Raffaelli, Ludovica Leccese

Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Critical Water Infrastructure: Kajaki Dam, Afghanistan^[1]

Date: August 28, 2025

Location: Afghanistan

Parties involved: Afghanistan; Taliban; Taliban authorities; Afghanistan’s Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW); Afghanistan security forces; patronage networks; Afghan population; humanitarian partners in Afghanistan; humanitarian partners staff; aid workers in Afghanistan; Iran; Iranian security forces; EU; international actors  

The event: The EU warns that Afghanistan faces severe water shortages, jeopardizing agriculture, health, and livelihoods.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The EU’s warning of Afghanistan’s escalating water crisis will very likely provide the Taliban with an opportunity to consolidate legitimacy by portraying themselves as capable managers of international assistance. By selectively controlling access to distribution, the Taliban will likely use water-related aid to strengthen patronage networks and reward loyal regions, reinforcing their authoritarian grip. Through communication strategies that reframe external assistance as either Taliban-led initiatives or divine providence, they will very likely claim political credit while deflecting responsibility for ongoing scarcity. This exploitation of aid will likely complicate the EU's ability to ensure neutrality, as its involvement will likely bolster the Taliban’s domestic authority and weaken international leverage over their governance.

• The EU’s warning will very likely catalyze efforts undertaken by humanitarian partners working inside Afghanistan to combat the water shortage crisis, likely leading to tensions with Taliban authorities linked to a clashing value system and concern for human rights. Western humanitarian efforts will almost certainly operate according to their prescribed codes of conduct, very likely emphasizing impartiality to safeguard water support distribution to all sectors of vulnerable Afghan populations. Aid provision according to Western standards will very likely expose their staff to ethical dilemmas due to the existing governance policies and restrictions on women’s rights, likely leading to morally questionable pragmatic solutions and compromises in aid delivery. The Taliban will likely punish any breaches to these restrictions, whether intentional or not, very likely endangering aid workers’ safety and jeopardizing humanitarian mission success.  

• There is a roughly even chance that renewed attention to the Afghanistan water crisis will deepen rifts in Iran-Afghanistan relations, likely exacerbating the ongoing water dispute. Likely attempting to improve water access in the country and showcase sovereignty over their natural resources, the Taliban authorities will very likely divert resources into critical dams’ maintenance and construction through MEW. Dams’ construction will likely improve the acquisition and long-term storage of water along key river flows, such as the Helmand River, very likely reducing critical water flows into Iran. Reduced water flow will almost certainly cause diplomatic confrontation and physical clashes between security forces from both sides along the shared border, with Iran very likely accusing the Taliban authorities of disregarding the Helmand River Water Treaty, despite neither party having ratified it.

Date: August 31, 2025

Location: Barcelona, Spain

Parties involved: Spain; Spanish government; intelligence service within the Spanish national police General Commissariat of Information (CGI); Spanish national police; law enforcement officers; Spanish far-right parties; Spanish far-right party Vox; Spanish climate activist group Futuro Vegetal; Futuro Vegetal members and affiliates; Spanish discontent citizens; Spanish evacuees from wildfire-affected regions; European States; European governments; European activists; cultural institutions across Europe; social media platforms; media  

The event: Spanish police arrested Futuro Vegetal members for vandalism at the Sagrada Familia basilica, aimed at drawing attention to the government’s alleged involvement in the recent forest fires.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Building on the arrests, cultural institutions across Europe will likely call on governments to implement stronger monument protection, likely redirecting resources toward heritage security rather than climate adaptation. This fund’s allocation will likely sharpen the perception that states act more urgently to safeguard symbols of national identity than to address the environmental crises fueling such protests. Uneven security measures across European states will likely create exploitable vulnerabilities, likely allowing activists to highlight the perceived irony that governments can mobilize rapidly for monuments but not for ecosystems. In the long term, this dynamic will likely deepen the grievances that motivated the Barcelona activists, entrenching climate radicalism across borders rather than curbing it.

• The Spanish Police, including CGI, will very likely take mitigative steps to prevent future Futuro Vegetal group's extremist activism actions, such as property damages, likely by increasing surveillance and criminal prosecution of the group’s individual affiliates. Law enforcement officers will likely conduct human intelligence operations against Futuro Vegetal, likely infiltrating the group through undercover operations to gain knowledge on future operation planning, communication methods, and membership. There is a roughly even chance that police units will use drones to monitor Futuro Vegetal’s activity, including meeting locations and membership identification, likely allowing the Spanish police to build criminal cases against members and gain critical intelligence on future operations. The Spanish Police and CGI will likely use the knowledge of group membership and operations to charge individuals with organized criminal offenses, likely exemplifying the severity of the threat and deterring future activism ending in criminal offenses.  

• Far-right parties will likely exploit the visual footage and media attention surrounding the activists’ arrests, adopting Futuro Vegetal’s message to further their own political goals. The arrest’s visual footage will almost certainly go viral on social media platforms due to the basilica’s defacement, very likely drawing attention to alleged government complicity in the summer wildfires. Surging far-right parties, such as Vox, will likely sense an exploitative opportunity in the media attention, very likely accentuating the Sagrada Familia’s national symbolism to convey a narrative of discontented citizens’ desperation directly resulting from government failure in effectively addressing national emergencies and handling public safety. Vox will likely strategically disseminate the footage coupled with derogatory slogans to gain increasing support from evacuees in regions worst hit by the wildfires, very likely aiming to exploit government distrust to achieve demands for early elections and depict themselves as the only viable choice in preventing future environmental crises.  

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[1] US Army Corps of Engineers will improve electrical distribution in Helmand province, by U.S. Army Coprs of Engineers, Middle East District, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)

[2] EU Warns of Urgent Water Crisis in Afghanistan, Khaama Press, August 2025, https://www.khaama.com/eu-warns-of-urgent-water-crisis-in-afghanistan/

[3] Spanish activists arrested for throwing paint on Barcelona's Sagrada Familia in protest over forest fires, CBS News, August 2025, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spanish-activists-throw-paint-barcelona-sagrada-familia-protest-forest-fires/