FLASH ALERT: INDIA STRIKES PAKISTAN IN RETALIATION OF KASHMIR ATTACK; NEW ATTACKS AND CIVILIANS CASUALTIES IN BOTH COUNTRIES EXPECTED
- Senior Editor
- May 8
- 9 min read
Lydia Baccino, Priscilla Alves Pereira, Lucy Gibson, W/T and OSINT-RDT Teams
Naureen Salim, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
May 8, 2025
Pakistan Flag[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT following the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict. On May 7, at 0105 local time, India launched missiles into several Pakistani-controlled locations, lasting approximately 25 minutes. The attacks killed at least 31 individuals and injured 57, mostly of Indian-Hindu ethnicity. India targeted specific infrastructure, referred to as “terrorist camps” that Kashmir Resistance group's militants allegedly used to prepare for the April 22 attack on tourists in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir.[2] Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif disputed these claims, stating that the strikes were “on the false pretext of the presence of imaginary terrorist camps” while targeting civilian infrastructure, including mosques.[3] Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari described this attack as “an act of war.”[4] Pakistan’s government has declared its right to respond “in self-defense, at a time, place, and manner of its choosing” and that the armed forces might take “corresponding actions” to protect Pakistan’s sovereignty.”[5]
CTG is on HIGH alert following India’s missile attack on Pakistan as tensions continue to escalate between the two nuclear powers. President Zardari’s definition of this attack as an act of war and mentioning Pakistan’s right to respond VERY LIKELY indicates intention to conduct military operations in India and its controlled territories. Any further action taken by either party will LIKELY result in increased conflict occurring in the region, VERY LIKELY consisting of state-mandated military attacks and religion-based clashes between civilians. India will LIKELY strike religious symbols like mosques in Kashmir and Pakistan, while Pakistan will LIKELY harass Hindu minorities under its jurisdiction in Kashmir.
Introduction
On May 7, 2025, at 0105 local time, India carried out an air strike on various civilian locations in Pakistani-controlled areas of Kashmir and Pakistan’s eastern Punjab region, killing at least 26 people and injuring 46.[6] Indian Armed Forces attacked nine infrastructure sites during Operation Sindoor. India claimed that the attack on Pakistan is a response to the April 22 terrorist attack on the Indian controlled Kashmir. The Indian government stated that they “carried out a precision strike on terrorist camps” and explained that their actions were “focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature” while clarifying that they did not target any Pakistani military facilities.[7] On April 22, 2025, local militant group Kashmir Resistance expressed frustration that more than 85,000 "outsiders" had settled in the region and claimed responsibility for the attack.[8] The attackers opened fire on tourists inIndia’s Jammu and Kashmir, killing at least 26 tourists and wounding 17.[9] Reportedly, it is one of the recent attacks with most casualties in South Asia[10] This attack predominantly targeted individuals of Indian-Hindu ethnicity, with one survivor saying that “Hindu men were specifically targeted by the gunmen.”[11] Another stated that “gunmen asked if they were Muslims or Hindus and, if Muslims, to recite the Islamic declaration of faith.”[12] Following the April 22 attack, both countries expelled each other’s diplomats and nationals while closing borders.[13] India has suspended the Indus Water Treaty it holds with Pakistan stating, "Now, India's water will flow for India's benefit, it will be conserved for India's benefit, and it will be used for India's progress."[14]
In addition to the retaliation motive, Indian intelligence believed that preparations for future attacks against them were ongoing.[15] Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has explained that the locations targeted were civilian infrastructure. One of the locations targeted was a mosque in Bahawalpur, Punjab province of Pakistan, which is close in proximity to a seminary used as a central office of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM), an Islamist militant group banned in 2002. Since 2002, there have reportedly been no operations present or conducted from this site.[16] A mosque in Muridke, Pakistan, acted as the headquarters of the jihadist militant organisation, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), until 2013, when Pakistan disbanded the group and arrested its leader.[17] Both incidents show that, while terrorism groups like JEM and LeT were once present in the targeted regions, the Pakistani government had taken action in past years to disband them and limit their activity. However, to explain the 2025 attacks, India claimed that its intelligence services identified imminent threats coming from these regions and legitimized its shelling attacks with these security concerns.[18]
Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif has reiterated that the attack is an act of war and declared his right to respond in self-defense, citing Article 51 of the UN Charter. He stated that the response would come “at a time, place, and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of civilian lives and the violation of its sovereignty.”[19] Pakistani officials have claimed that their forces have shot down five Indian Air Force planes and one drone, however, no reports have so far confirmed this.[20]
To decrease tensions, the EU’s Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas, informed reporters that the Union is trying to “mediate and bring the tensions down” before the meeting of European foreign ministers in Warsaw. In support of the EU's stance, Spain's Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares posted on X that "peace, diplomacy and restraint must prevail.”[21] China expressed concern at the current situation in South Asia, directly condemning India’s military actions and calling for restraints from both countries involved.[22]
Analysis
India will very likely continue striking targets inside Pakistan that it deems terrorist-related. Missile strikes will likely aim to destroy strategic areas on multiple fronts in Pakistan, likely striking border regions like Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Pakistani Punjab. India will unlikely engage in a full-blown deployment of its army, focusing on missile attacks and occasional armed combat against Pakistani forces along the borders. India will likely aim to inflict damage to Pakistan’s infrastructure while limiting the attacks to sparsely populated and border areas, likely to maintain the narrative that it is targeting terrorist hideouts. This attempt at maintaining plausible deniability will likely not hinder India from striking religious targets such as mosques. There is a roughly even chance that India will keep a permissive stance towards separatists' groups attacking Pakistani representatives in contested areas, perceiving them as a tool to increase pressure on Pakistan.
Pakistan will likely gather the support of Muslim allies, the EU, and the international community, as other countries will likely recognize India’s multiple attacks as unjustified or disproportional. Pakistan has a roughly even chance of refraining from retaliating strikes in Indian territory due to its military inferiority and the diplomatic leverage it could have in negotiations by showing restraint. The Pakistani government will likely enact other measures to express its resolve and confront India’s actions, such as publicly condemning its actions, extending the airspace ban for Indian airlines, and conducting mass arrests of Indian nationals suspected of insurgent actions. Pakistan will likely engage in an arms race by acquiring funding from Muslim allies such as the Gulf countries and Turkey and mobilizing its armaments to showcase its potential striking capabilities.
There is a roughly even chance that China will support Pakistan by supplying it with weapons and financial resources to carry out more attacks in India and weaken China’s historical competitor in Asia. China will have a roughly even chance of supporting Pakistan through indirect ways like trade and financial support to avoid any negative consequences from countries that support India like the US and Russia. China will likely exploit the conflict between India and Pakistan to increase military movement along the border with India. The buildup of troops and equipment along the border and the heightened tensions with Pakistan will likely give China the confidence to continue its dual-use research close to India’s coastline to gather information about India’s military capabilities presenting the activities as scientific research. Chinese involvement in the conflict and its collaboration with Pakistan will very likely threaten India’s economic and national security by enabling Pakistan to sustain a long conflict and trade bans against India.
The interruption of the Ganges water supply to Pakistan and the ongoing strikes in eastern Pakistan will likely create alarm and resource scarcity in border areas. Pakistani civilians will likely stock up on water out of fear of shortages, likely overwhelming the supply chain. Civilians in contested areas, such as Azad Kashmir, will likely attempt to move inland to avoid potential Indian attacks, likely saturating public transport and roads. Congested transportation routes will likely hinder the delivery of basic services such as food supply and the transit of emergency vehicles, likely causing shortages and increasing casualties in case services are unreachable for multiple days. A sudden influx of civilians towards internal regions will very likely challenge accommodating internally displaced persons (IDPs), addressing medical needs, and conducting security checks of incoming citizens amid terrorist threats. The internal movement of thousands of civilians will likely increase the risk of clashes between religious communities, as safety risks will likely put civilians on high alert and scapegoat Hindu groups in Pakistan and Muslim groups in India for the escalation of violence.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Muslim communities in Pakistan and contested areas in India increase security controls around symbolic locations to prevent religious-motivated attacks
Pakistani government officials should review and activate an emergency plan to prevent a water shortage in the region and to ensure even distribution across its territory.
The Pakistani government should refrain from retaliating against these attacks with military action and instead engage in negotiations to defuse the tensions and promote long-term stability.
The Indian government should halt missile strikes and armed attacks on Pakistani territory and engage in diplomatic talks to discuss the potential presence of terrorist groups and coordinate counterterrorism efforts.
Pakistani civilians residing in areas along the Indian border, especially if residing next to military compounds or areas with high terrorist presence, should seek shelter in less-populated areas away from potential strike targets.
Hindu civilians living in Pakistan should exercise caution, considering the heightened political climate, and be aware of the increased risk of religiously-motivated attacks against the Hindu community.
The Muslim minority living in India should implement additional security measures both on community and individual level, especially when visiting religious sites that might become a target of Hindu supporters such as mosques and madrasas.
Civilians in Indian regions near Pakistan like Kashmir should frequently monitor local news and listen to authorities’ announcements in case of imminent threats coming from Pakistani retaliation.
Foreign citizens in Pakistan should contact their respective embassies to assess their individual risk and learn about repatriation options in case of escalations.
Tourists currently in or planning to visit South Asia should take into account the closing of Pakistani airspace for Indian airlines and revise their visit itinerary accordingly.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the recent escalation of Indian attacks on Pakistan and Pakistan’s declaration that it will respond. Civilians will very likely fear for their safety and risk becoming casualties in missile strikes between the two countries and in clashes between local religious communities. The restricted water supply in Pakistan will likely exacerbate the displacement and panic caused by this crisis, with the risk of a widespread humanitarian and health crisis added to the existing political tensions. Due to India’s recent intensification of counterterrorism campaigns and its strikes against Pakistani locations suspected of being terrorists’ hideouts, there is a high risk of future violence and mass casualties in contested zones. Pakistani military retaliation will very likely cause the conflict to spiral and increase the number of casualties and political instability across South Asia. The international community will likely try to stimulate negotiation and peaceful dialogue due to their concerns about nuclear arms in both countries.
Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of targeted attacks against Muslims in Pakistan, both by the Indian government and by Hindu civilians sympathizing with India. The Indian government will LIKELY continue to conduct strikes in Pakistan and leave civilian-made attacks against the Pakistani government unpunished to maintain its counterterrorism stance. Pakistan has a ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE to attempt to gather allies’ support and prioritize non-military means of confrontation to avoid a full-scale military conflict and limit its humanitarian crisis. To prepare for a sustained long-term conflict, Pakistan will LIKELY increase its weaponry arsenal with the collaboration of allies like China to match Indian incursions if necessary.
[1] Pakistan flag, generated by a third party database
[2] What we know about India's strike on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, BBC, May 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o.amp
[3] India strikes Pakistan over tourist killings, Pakistan says Indian jets downed, Reuters, May 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/multiple-loud-explosions-heard-pakistani-kashmir-reuters-witness-2025-05-06/
[4] Live updates: Pakistan says 26 killed in Indian strikes as tensions rise after Kashmir massacre, AP News, May 2025, https://apnews.com/live/india-pakistan-attack-pahalgam-kashmir
[5] Ibid
[6] India strikes Pakistan over tourist killings, Pakistan says Indian jets downed, Reuters, May 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/multiple-loud-explosions-heard-pakistani-kashmir-reuters-witness-2025-05-06/
[7] What we know about India’s strike on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, BBC, May 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o
[8] At least 20 feared killed in militant attack on tourists in Indian Kashmir, security sources say, Reuters, April 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/one-killed-seven-injured-militant-attack-indias-kashmir-india-today-tv-says-2025-04-22/
[9] Ibid
[10] Ibid
[11] Tensions escalate as Pakistan vows response to Indian strikes after Pahalgam killings, BBC News, May 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt#player
[12] Indian survivors of Kashmir attack say gunmen asked if they were Hindus and opened fire, AP News, April 2025, https://apnews.com/article/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan-victims-a5492962cd86174262cb73b85c04c51a
[13] India fires missiles on Pakistan. Islamabad calls it an ‘act of war’ and says it downed Indian jets, AP News, May 2025, https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853
[14] India to stop water flowing across international borders, Modi says, BBC, May 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd9l9qwyv23o.amp
[15] India strikes Pakistan, escalating tensions over terrorist attack in Kashmir, NBC News, May 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/india/india-pakistan-jammu-kashmir-rcna205229
[16] Dozens killed as Pakistan and India exchange fire in disputed Kashmir, Sky News, May 2025, https://news.sky.com/story/pakistan-attacked-with-missiles-as-india-says-it-targeted-terrorist-camps-13362775
[17] Ibid
[18] India strikes Pakistan over tourist killings, Pakistan says Indian jets downed, Reuters, May 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/multiple-loud-explosions-heard-pakistani-kashmir-reuters-witness-2025-05-06/
[19] Pakistan asserts right to self-defence, vows retaliation, BBC, May 2025, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwyneele13qt
[20] Tensions escalate as Pakistan vows response to Indian strikes after Pahalgam killings, BBC News, May 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt#player
[21] Ibid
[22] How world leaders react to Indian strikes in Pakistan after Kashmir attack, ReutersI, May 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/reactions-indian-strikes-pakistan-after-kashmir-attack-2025-05-06/
[23] Ibid
[24] At least 20 feared killed in militant attack on tourists in Indian Kashmir, security sources say, Reuters, April 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/india/one-killed-seven-injured-militant-attack-indias-kashmir-india-today-tv-says-2025-04-22/
[25] Tensions escalate as Pakistan vows response to Indian strikes after Pahalgam killings, BBC, Live 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwyneele13qt#player
[26] Ibid
[27] Indian survivors of Kashmir attack say gunmen asked if they were Hindus and opened fire, AP News, April 2025, https://apnews.com/article/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan-victims-a5492962cd86174262cb73b85c04c51a
