August 13, 2023
Dan Flanagan, Megan Khalife
Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor
Balochistan Province[1]
Event: On August 13, 2023, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed it attacked a military convoy transporting Chinese nationals to a construction location near the port of Gwadar, which is an element of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Chinese consulate in Karachi stated no Chinese nationals were harmed or injured but urged citizens to stay vigilant. The CPEC is a significant part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as it has invested vast resources into Balochistan, which houses many valuable minerals. A statement from the Pakistani military said the attacker used small arms and grenades in the attack, two of the attackers died, and there were no casualties in the convoy. The BLA and other militants accuse the Pakistani government of exploiting resources in the region and staged previous attacks on projects linked to the CPEC.[2]
Significance: Insurgent and separatist groups will very likely continue targeting Chinese personnel and assets to disrupt the CPEC project’s operations. The BLA will likely continue to counter the Pakistani military’s claims over the death and injury toll and use the attack to spread propaganda and attempt to boost recruitment. China will likely urge Pakistani authorities to investigate the incident, very likely prompting China and Pakistan to announce a mutual security program allowing Chinese soldiers to protect their interests in a limited capacity. Pakistan will very likely conduct counter-attacks against the BLA to show China its willingness to protect its interests. China will likely announce the expansion of projects in Pakistan, very likely to show that militant groups are not deterring its efforts. Project development in Pakistan has a roughly even chance of inciting protests among its population, likely viewing the projects as encroaching on their sovereignty. Countries in which China has infrastructure and investment projects related to the BRI will likely perceive this attack as threatening, likely assessing the security concerns and adopting similar measures to safeguard their interests. China will likely seek negotiations with the BLA and attempt to convince leaders of the benefit of its regional projects. BLA and other separatist leaders will very likely reject deals China proposes, likely seeing violence as the only means to reject the growing Chinese influence.
Recommendations
CTG recommends both China and Pakistan provide comprehensive documentation of resource allocation and profits of the CPEC. Such an initiative enhances trust, promotes transparency, and reduces concerns regarding insufficient benefits provided to local communities.
CTG recommends leaders engage local communities in Balochistan in dialogues over grievances to counter the narratives and spread support for the BLA.
CTG recommends the CPEC project invest in more efficient risk management strategies to identify vulnerabilities considering the rising threat of insurgent and separatist groups.
CTG recommends nations part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative increase collection methods and intelligence reports on groups who may seek to disrupt the project or attack government installations in response to hosting China.
CTG recommends Western intelligence agencies and their allies monitor China’s response to the attack and if these changes influence future BRI projects.
If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone at 202-643-2848 or email at info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] Balochistan, Pakistan by Google Maps
[2] Militants attack Pakistani military convoy escorting Chinese nationals, Reuters, August 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/militants-attack-pakistani-military-convoy-escorting-chinese-nationals-2023-08-13/