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IMMINENT WARNING: IRANIAN RETALIATION, INCREASED REGIONAL TENSIONS, AND GROWING ANTISEMITISM EXPECTED AFTER ISRAEL’S ATTACK ON IRAN’S NUCLEAR FACILITIES  

Updated: Jun 14

(The Imminent Warning is a report that analyzes a threat being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)


Lydia Baccino, Orane Desilles, Leon Kille James Raggio, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

June 13, 2025

Air Strike[1]


Event: On June 13, Israel carried out strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, missile sites, and top military officers,[2] killing several senior military commanders, including officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and six top nuclear scientists.[3] Iranian media reports 78 people dead and 329 injured.[4] Israel’s Operation Rising Lion employed more than 100 drones and over 200 fighter jets. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “it would continue for as many days as it takes.”[5] Israel’s ambassador to France, Joshua Zarka, reportedly declared, “It’s not a war, it’s a decapitation operation and an operation to stop the nuclear program… which has been progressing in a very dangerous way recently.”[6] These attacks follow the rising tensions regarding Iran constructing and activating a third nuclear enrichment facility despite warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).[7]  Iran initially retaliated by sending approximately 100 drones to Israel; however, an Israeli military official reports that forces intercepted these outside the territory.[8] Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for support and declared, “The Islamic Republic of Iran will give a severe, wise and strong answer to the occupier regime.”[9] Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said, “The Zionist regime has committed a crime in our dear country today… that regime should anticipate a severe punishment. By God’s grace, the powerful arm of the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces won’t let them go unpunished. With this crime, the Zionist regime has prepared for itself a bitter, painful fate, which it will definitely see.”[10]


Following the attack, Israel has begun closing embassies globally while urging citizens to remain vigilant and not to display any Jewish or Israeli symbols.[11] Officials have not provided a timeframe for these closures, but Israel has urged citizens to cooperate with local authorities and complete a form updating their personal details and location.[12] This comes following anti-Israel protests occurring in the streets of Tehran as the Iranian president has asked the public to “unite behind the government.”[13] Hours after the initial attack, Israel announced that its Air Force had carried out additional strikes on new locations within Iran,[14] reportedly targeting residential and commercial buildings too.[15]


Significance: Israel’s attack will very likely deepen social and governance challenges in Iran, undermining social cohesion through increasing public distrust in the government. Continued attacks targeting populated areas will very likely increase civilian casualties. The concentration of attacks on specific locations will very likely increase residents’ exposure to harm through the overwhelming of local emergency services, likely worsening inequalities in socio-economically marginalized communities. Inequalities will likely undermine resilience by limiting access to aid and recovery resources, likely intensifying pressure on humanitarian actors and the international community to respond to the regional crisis. Uneven humanitarian relief will very likely increase the risk of worsening local grievances and tensions, enabling Iranian proxies to enhance their involvement in the region. Proxy groups will very likely exploit this instability to strengthen their influence through boosted mobilization and recruitment. State and non-state actors will likely exploit systematic difficulties in establishing accurate data on casualties and targets to influence or manipulate narratives. Iran will very likely use this event to justify further crackdowns and restrictions on civilians, such as lengthy or repeated Internet blackouts, which are unlikely to trigger widespread civil unrest.


Attacking and damaging nuclear facilities very likely heightens the risk of increased nuclear radiation related to leakages and ruined structures. Lacking third-party, impartial personnel on site who can evaluate the threat level, Iranian authorities will likely try to downplay the damage assessment, likely to show their structure resisted the attacks. This approach very likely inhibits a realistic risk assessment, hindering protective measures that could limit local populations’ exposure to potentially higher radiation. The secrecy protecting Iran’s nuclear program very likely kept neighboring civilians and emergency services unaware of the nature of each facility, likely increasing the risk of contamination due to the lack of necessary personal protective equipment (PPE) while approaching the structure for emergency operations.


Iranian government’s official declarations and initial missile attacks against Israel very likely indicate a trend of continued Iranian retaliation. Iran very likely aims to show it retains significant military capabilities to overshadow the impact of Israel’s attack internally and externally. This will likely push Iran to use significant weapons, like missiles, to prove it is still a regional power. The massive launch of missiles and drones will very likely endanger Israel's civilian population, as Iran is prioritizing quantity over target accuracy, likely hoping the quantity will overcome Israeli aerial defenses. Iran will almost certainly target multiple locations indiscriminately, likely blending military targets, infrastructure, and civilian areas to maximize physical and psychological impact. The barrage of incoming projectiles will likely challenge Israeli systems' ability to intercept any incoming threats, very likely exposing civilians with limited or distant access to shelter at risk. Even though well-established warning alert systems will likely mitigate these risks, there is a roughly even chance that residents in border areas, isolated settlements, or people lacking access to real-time warnings will remain vulnerable to incoming missiles. Iran will very likely implement multiple, subsequent launches of missiles and drones, especially against bigger cities, likely to increase uncertainty and hinder emergency services in the aftermath of the initial attacks. The fear of a double-tap and continuing alerts will likely delay rescue operations and damage assessment.

Iranian regional proxies, forming the so-called Axis of Resistance, will almost certainly increase verbal threats against Israel and Israel-linked entities, very likely reiterating Iran’s narrative of a severe retaliation coming. This public approach very likely serves as a show of unity and force in the media, despite the weakening on the ground, following the recent attacks killing high-ranking figures of Hezbollah and Hamas. The threatened response will likely consist of single actions by each different proxy, rather than a coordinated, simultaneous attack, as the killing of IRGC top military personnel very likely hinders communication and coordination within the Axis of Resistance in the immediate attack aftermath. The uncoordinated retaliation has a roughly even chance to occur coincidentally, as proxies will likely conduct actions in the short term to showcase their commitment to fight Israel and avenge Iranian victims. These responses will likely increase Israel and its allies’ need to monitor the different networks and diversified command structure, with a roughly even chance of straining dispersed resources and hindering effective early warning procedures, especially in the case of individual or small cells’ attacks devised at a tactical level. Hamas will likely plan limited launches of rockets against Israel, likely keeping its focus on the Gaza Strip, targeting deployed Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah has a roughly even chance of exploiting Israel’s focus on the Gaza Strip and direct attacks against Iran to regroup and plan retaliation near the Lebanese/Israeli border areas, acting undetected. Hamas and Hezbollah will almost certainly increase calls to action, likely inspiring individual extremists to conduct small attacks in Israeli territory with explosives, ramming vehicles, or white weapons, with a roughly even chance of lone actors attacking Israeli-linked venues or Jewish targets worldwide, especially in the US and European countries perceived as supporting Israel. The Houthis will very likely continue attacking Israeli and Western ships in the Red Sea and launching missiles against Israeli critical infrastructure, such as airports and ports. The Houthis have a roughly even chance of exploiting the challenged Iranian ability to oversee and coordinate proxies in the short term by pursuing targeting based more on their own agenda than on Tehran’s interests. They will likely stage attacks showcasing long-range capabilities to prove to Iran their necessary role, likely gaining prominence among proxies and increasing their agency in future actions.   The declared long duration of Operation Rising Lion and Iranian future retaliatory attacks will very likely impose continued airspace closure in Jordan and Iraq and increase regional tension over the downing of missiles and drones or accusations of national airspace violations. Should an unwanted incident occur or a missile or drone damage a neighboring country, there is a roughly even chance that the open conflict will extend beyond Israel, Iran, and its proxies, likely prompting heightened regional instability and armed confrontation. Iranian authorities will likely increase scrutiny against Arab countries that intercepted missiles or drones, likely questioning their stance on the Palestinian cause, regardless of their explanation of protecting their territory and citizens. There is a roughly even chance that the passing projectiles or Israel’s use of national airspace will increase internal tensions, especially in Iraq, where Iran-backed militias among the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) hold political and military power. The enhanced mutual accusation and weakened trust have a roughly even chance of prompting local clashes between Sunni and Shia communities. The continued closure of airspace in Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Jordan will very likely hinder evacuation chances for foreign nationals trying to leave the Middle East. The short notice between the issue of travel advisories from Western countries and the attack very likely hindered a complete evacuation, leaving remaining foreigners without a clear escape plan after the closure of regional airports. Foreigners residing in Israel or Iran will very likely try to shelter in place, considering the ongoing alerts, while expats living in neighboring countries, such as Lebanon or Iraq, will likely try to temporarily evacuate, should local authorities reopen airspace. There is a roughly even chance that foreign nationals in Israel, Lebanon, or Iraq will try to reach by route countries where commercial flights still operate, likely increasing traffic near the border crossing, with local criminal networks or extremist groups seeking to exploit the chaotic situation and increased traffic to attack. The sudden increase in passengers and flights will likely overburden alternative Middle Eastern hubs, such as Saudi Arabia, straining operational and security personnel, as commercial airlines will almost certainly continue avoiding Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Jordan, regardless of the single national airspace status.  

Israeli strikes against Iran will very likely amplify ongoing antisemitism worldwide. Foreign countries, particularly those with a large Jewish and Muslim population, such as Germany, France, and the USA, will very likely experience a spike in antisemitism in the public and online sphere. Extremists and radical activists will very likely spread these attacks on social media platforms, likely promoting user reactions that could raise antisemitic discourse. There is a roughly even chance that extremists and radical activists will deliberately manipulate or obscure images and visual footage of the strikes to mislead the audience, very likely promoting online radicalization to increase antisemitism in the public sphere. Public demonstrations against Israel’s military campaign will very likely occur globally in major cities, likely near foreign Israeli governmental or Jewish religious sites. Extremists will likely infiltrate demonstrations seeking to incite violent antisemitic behavior toward local Jewish populations and the security services containing the demonstrations. There is a roughly even chance that hostilities will inspire vandalism and destruction of Jewish memorials and monuments, very likely prompting local law enforcement to increase patrols along such locations.  


Recommendations

  • The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that emergency and health authorities on both sides ensure equal access to aid and recovery resources following strikes involving civilian infrastructure to decrease the risk of local grievances and tensions against the government.

  • Iranian citizens should remain vigilant about state and non-state actors attempting to exploit systematic difficulties in humanitarian relief distribution.

  • Iranian citizens should remain cautious of possible state crackdowns and government-imposed restrictions in the aftermath of the attacks.

  • IAEA should continue monitoring the situation of the targeted nuclear sites, trying to get reliable data on radiation levels and instructing the local emergency services and population on safety measures.

  • Israeli citizens should be aware of Iranian retaliatory attacks and remain attentive to warnings and air sirens in their area. Citizens should continue following the Home Front Command’s advice and remain ready to seek nearby private or public air shelters.

  • Israeli security and intelligence services should increase monitoring and inter-agency information-sharing to intercept and prevent short-term uncoordinated retaliatory attacks by Iran and its proxies.

  • Foreign nationals attempting to leave the Middle East should prepare for a prolonged closure of airspace in the region. They should follow embassies’ and local authorities’ instructions instead of evacuating on their own initiative to remain safe. Foreign nationals flying to the Middle East should follow updated travel advisories from their respective countries’ foreign offices and airlines.

  • Israeli nationals and Jewish individuals abroad should stay alert and be cautious when publicly displaying Jewish or Israeli symbols. They should closely cooperate with local law enforcement and follow their security advice.

  • Worldwide, national law enforcement should increase monitoring of antisemitic activities and enhance surveillance of Jewish or Israel-related targets to deter and counter potential vandalism or attacks.

  • Foreign leaders and heads of state should call for de-escalation, foster diplomatic initiatives, and refrain from expressions that could heighten radical views or grievances.

  • If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com

[1] Air Strike, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites and its top military leaders. Iran retaliates with drones, AP , June 2025, https://apnews.com/article/iran-explosions-israel-tehran-00234a06e5128a8aceb406b140297299 

[5] World reacts to Israeli strike on Iran over nuclear activity, RFI, June 2025, https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20250613-world-reacts-to-israeli-strike-on-iran-over-nuclear-activity-france 

[6] Ibid

[7] Iran announces a new nuclear enrichment site after UN watchdog censure, AP, June 2025, https://apnews.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-sanctions-728b811da537abe942682e13a82ff8bd 

[10] World reacts to Israeli strike on Iran over nuclear activity, RFI, June 2025, https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20250613-world-reacts-to-israeli-strike-on-iran-over-nuclear-activity-france 

[11] Israel shuts global embassies after attack on Iran, Reuters, June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/israel-shuts-global-embassies-after-attack-iran-2025-06-13/ 

[12] Ibid

[15] Ibid


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