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IMMINENT WARNING: RIGHT-WING INFLUENCER CHARLIE KIRK KILLED; SUSPECT AT LARGE; RISK OF COPYCATS AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE LIKELY

Lydia Baccino, Indira Hankins, Farah Birch, NORTHCOM and Extremism Team

Tom Rochester, Elizabeth Fignar, Kate Shymkiv, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

September 12, 2025  


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Police Cars[1]


Event: On September 10, 2025, an unknown suspect shot and killed Charlie Kirk, a right-wing US influencer, during a speech at Utah Valley University, Orem, Utah.[2] Before the shooting, he was delivering his presentation while sitting under a white tent emboldened with the logos “The American Comeback” and “Prove Me Wrong.”[3] As the co-founder of Turning Point USA, which engages youths in politics, Kirk has been reportedly an influential factor in President Trump’s November election win.[4]


Kirk was 20 minutes into his speech when shots were heard. Witnesses report seeing Kirk reaching his hand up, covered in blood, and an injury to the left side of his neck before falling off his chair.[5] Initial reports stated that a suspect was in custody, but later confirmed this was not the shooter.[6] Shortly after the shooting, President Trump posted on X, “We must all pray for Charlie Kirk, who has been shot. A great guy from top to bottom. GOD BLESS HIM!”[7]


Trump confirmed Kirk’s death on his platform Truth Social, posting, “The Great, and even Legendary, Charlie Kirk, is dead… No one understood or had the Heart of the Youth in the United States of America better than Charlie. He was loved and admired by ALL, especially me, and now, he is no longer with us."[8] Footage of the attack is currently circulating on various social media apps, gaining vast viewership.


Significance: The shooting of Charlie Kirk almost certainly highlights the heightened vulnerability of political figures in the current polarized environment. The visibility, accessibility, and prominence of political figures at public events will very likely increase their vulnerability, positioning them as primary targets. High-profile public events will likely expose political figures to direct, targeted threats from individuals seeking to inflict harm to make a political statement. Left-leaning political figures, activists, and participants in progressive movements will very likely face increased risks of retaliatory attacks from the right-leaning actors, with Kirk’s death being used as motivation. Prominent right-wing figures are likely susceptible to copycat attacks as a method of creating further anger and division between the Left and Right.


Politically motivated attacks in this current polarized environment will very likely embolden extremist actors by validating their violent methodologies, attracting attention through the media, and spreading their ideologies to a larger audience. The growing threat to political figures and public safety will almost certainly spread fear amongst individuals who share similar political views, increasing their safety concerns and prompting them to refrain from openly expressing their views. The evolving threat environment has a roughly even chance of leading political figures to reduce their participation in larger political events and campaign trails.


Leaders of non-governmental organizations, participants in rallies, protests, and gatherings across the political spectrum will likely face increased risks of violence and threats due to their roles in the public environment. Actors with strong opposition views will very likely target these groups. Many of these groups have a roughly even chance of implementing additional security measures due to limited funding, leaving them vulnerable to attacks.  


Law enforcement will very likely implement heightened security measures at upcoming public gatherings to reduce the risk of copycat attacks, including increased patrol presence, rapid-response units, surveillance of potential threat areas, and coordination with federal agencies and private protection agencies for intelligence sharing. Public safety measures for political figures will almost certainly increase, including covert personnel security measures and body armor. They will very likely coordinate with university officials, implementing stricter protection guidelines for highly politicized events. These risk mitigation measures will likely include: mandatory attendee registration, restricted access to entry points, metal detection screening, controlled stage access, enhanced camera monitoring, and pre-event threat assessments. Universities will very likely reserve these events for their enrolled students, limiting the risk of outside threats. These measures will very likely aim to restrict the accessibility of public figures to potential attacks while maintaining a safe environment for attendees.


The footage of the attack will very likely amplify perceptions of political violence and elevate the perceived effectiveness among extremists of targeting high-profile individuals. The footage will very likely contribute to a rise in political extremism online and likely increase extremist discourse on social media. The footage will likely motivate individuals with extreme, politically motivated views to consider similar acts, increasing the radicalisation of at-risk individuals across online platforms. Increased viewership will almost certainly create moderation challenges within the digital service industry, as graphic content will very likely spread rapidly thanks to the users’ continuous upload, and attract widespread attention. This will very likely prompt law enforcement to integrate digital monitoring into operational planning, using the footage to identify actors, plans of attacks, and gather evidence to support ongoing investigations into the Charlie Kirk shooting.


Recommendations

  • The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that university and event security officials strengthen coordination with local law enforcement and federal agencies to protect high-profile figures at public events.

  • Security personnel should implement controlled access measures at future political events, including attendee screening of all guests and staff working the event, restricted entry points with blockades, and monitored perimeters with law enforcement and Closed-Circuit Television (CCTV). Security teams should follow this operational procedure for future political events to ensure the safety of political representatives, their staff, and families. Venues hosting events should have the highest level of security, and personnel trained to prevent threats  from active shooters, snipers, suicide bombers, knife and vehicle attacks.

  • Political influencers and prominent public figures should adopt physical security measures akin to those of high-profile political figures. This includes employing professional security personnel, undergoing situation awareness training, and coordinating with specialized protective security teams at large-profile events.

  • Social media companies should implement a cooperative approach to remove footage of the shooting. Content moderators of social media companies and internet forums should implant a sharing hashing database that flags any term associated with this attack and report findings in a collaborative space.

  • Prominent leaders, influencers and politicians should refrain from divisive discourse to avoid spreading  political polarization and fear among people. 

  • Citizens should follow least biased and credible sources for updates on the ongoing investigation to combat misinformation.

  • If there is any additional and or critical information, please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com

[1] Police, generated by a third party database

[2] Powerful right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk shot at event in Utah, Sky News, September 2025, https://news.sky.com/story/powerful-right-wing-influencer-charlie-kirk-hit-after-shots-fired-at-an-event-in-utah-13428272 

[3] Powerful right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk shot at event in Utah, Sky News, September 2025, https://news.sky.com/story/powerful-right-wing-influencer-charlie-kirk-hit-after-shots-fired-at-an-event-in-utah-13428272 

[4] Ibid

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[8] @realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, September 10, 2025, https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115181934991844419 

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