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INDIA SIGNS $468 MILLION DEAL WITH THE UK FOR THALES LIGHTWEIGHT MULTIROLE MISSILES, AND NATO BEGINS STEADFAST NOON NUCLEAR DETERRENCE EXERCISE WITH 14 ALLIES AND 70 AIRCRAFT

October 9-15, 2025 | Issue 39 - Weapons & Tactics Team

Agathe Labadi, Nimaya Premachandra, Victoria Kotey, Matan Lieberman, Lucy Gibson

Elizabeth Fignar, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor


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Multirole Missiles[1]


Date: October 9, 2025

Location: India

Parties involved: India; Indian forces; UK; UK-based weapon supplier Thales; Pakistan; Russia; US; Western military suppliers

The event: India agreed to acquire Thales-made lightweight multirole missiles (LMMs) through a $468 million government-to-government deal with the UK.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

  • India’s acquisition of Thales-made LMMs from the UK very likely signals its preparation for future regional conflicts rather than merely upgrading its arsenal, especially amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan. To prepare for growing insecurity, India likely seeks to build greater operational flexibility and strengthen deterrence, ensuring its forces can engage rapidly and precisely across multiple domains. By adopting versatile, combat-oriented weapons such as the LMMs, India will likely enhance its tactical effectiveness in both air-to-surface and surface-to-surface combat scenarios, enabling faster deployment and more accurate targeting in dynamic battle environments. This will very likely strengthen operational cooperation with the UK through joint exercises focused on LMM deployment, enhancing readiness and the ability to conduct coordinated combat operations.

  • India will likely pursue a balanced defense procurement strategy that will maintain its long-standing ties with Russia while expanding cooperation with Western military suppliers. This approach will likely arise from the need to preserve strategic flexibility and hedge against unpredictable US relations, allowing India to secure weapons from multiple sources without depending on any single partner. India will likely achieve this by continuing to acquire Russian-made weapons to sustain defense relationships while simultaneously diversifying its arsenal with complementary Western-made military technology, like the UK. This wide range of suppliers will very likely enable India to stimulate domestic military production and access state-of-the-art technological blueprints, upgrading existing equipment such as T-72 tanks and strengthening overall military capability.


Date: October 13, 2025

Location: Netherlands

Parties involved: NATO; NATO allied states; NATO nuclear-armed countries; NATO member state air bases housing its nuclear assets; NATO non-nuclear states; military personnel from NATO countries; Russia; Sweden; Finland; Poland; Belarus

The event: NATO launched the annual Steadfast Noon nuclear deterrence exercise with the participation of 14 allied states and 70 aircraft.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • Lessons learned from the exercise will very likely motivate NATO to promote the operational capability and modernization of member state air bases housing its nuclear assets, likely raising the standards for provisions within existing Service-Level Agreements. NATO will likely increase investment in advanced measures, such as security perimeters and enhanced command-and-control structures, around Weapons Storage Vaults (WSVs) at user nation air bases, very likely aiming to improve the ease of ground assets’ access and deployment. Enhanced security and C2 measures at user nation air bases will very likely necessitate parallel increases in training for military personnel and updated procedural standards for dual-capable aircraft, such as the F-35A 5th-generation fighter bomber.

  • Russia will very likely interpret Steadfast Noon as a threat to Russian security, likely adopting an assertive posture to justify the development and deployment of its nuclear capabilities. Russia will very likely view the exercise as NATO’s preparation for a potential attack against it by intelligence sharing and training on nuclear weapons through the participation of nuclear-armed countries,  and nearby non-nuclear states like Sweden, Finland, and Poland. As a defensive measure, Russia will likely reposition a portion of its nuclear assets closer to Finland and the Baltic region, very likely aiming to send a deterrent response. Building on this repositioning, Russia will very likely organize similar military drills with Belarus to showcase its nuclear arsenal.

[1] Multirole Missiles, generated by a third party database (This image pixelation has been enhanced by a third-party.)

[2] India to buy UK-made Thales multirole missiles in £350 million deal, Defense News, October 2025, https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2025/10/09/india-to-buy-uk-made-thales-multirole-missiles-in-350-million-deal/ 

[3] NATO launches nuclear deterrence drill with 70 warplanes, including US F-35s, Interesting Engineering, October 2025, https://interestingengineering.com/military/nato-launches-annual-nuclear-deterrence-drill

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