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ISRAEL STRIKES DOHA, QATAR TARGETING HAMAS LEADERSHIP; DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS HIGH AS RETALIATION ATTACKS VERY LIKELY

(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center.  The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but maybe subject to change.)  


Lydia Baccino, Mireia Fonseca Claparols, Lavinia Ansalone, Cora Jordan, CENTCOM

Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

September 9, 2025


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 F-35 Aircraft[1] 


Current situation: The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and the Israeli Security Agency (ISA) conducted strikes on Qatar’s capital, Doha, targeting Hamas senior leadership.[2] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on X that Israel conducted the operation independently and takes full responsibility.[3] Qatar's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Majed al-Ansari, strongly condemned the attack, accusing Israel of violating international law and disrupting regional security.[4] The confirmed targets were residential buildings hosting members of Hamas’ Political Bureau.[5]


Day/Time of event: September 9, 2025/Approximately 1616 local time


What is the current threat:

  • The Israeli strike in Doha is likely to draw Qatar more directly into the Israeli-Hamas conflict, heightening regional tensions. Direct conflict involvement will likely complicate Qatar’s role as a mediator and further strain relations with Gulf signatories of the Abraham Accords, who are likely to continue distancing themselves politically from Israel. Prospective signatories of the Abraham Accords, such as Saudi Arabia, are unlikely to pursue normalization in the near future. Arab and international public opinions will likely undermine the sustainability of the Abraham Accords for signatory states. As a further consequence of heightened tensions, Hamas’ regional allies are very likely to conduct reprisals and retaliatory attacks against Israel, exploiting the strikes to reinforce the narratives critical of Israel and to undermine the legitimacy of Arab governments that maintain diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv.

  • Hamas and allied Iran-backed groups, such as the Houthis, will very likely retaliate against the IDF strike, likely launching missile and drone strikes towards Israel. These attacks will likely target critical infrastructure in Tel Aviv, like airports, main roads, and energy infrastructure. While these attacks will unlikely cause major civilian damage given Israel’s defence capabilities, they will likely trigger air raid sirens, flight suspensions, and daily disruptions across Tel Aviv.

  • International diplomatic missions and embassies in Doha will very likely heighten their security measures as a result of the strike until further information is available. Embassies will very likely restrict staff movements and reduce their public activities, likely disrupting the timely provision of diplomatic services, including visa processing and assistance to foreign nationals in Doha. These operational constraints will likely increase reliance on Qatari security and slow decision-making, limit reporting to their respective Foreign Ministries, and reduce the missions’ ability to respond quickly to the evolving security situation in Doha.

  • The event will very likely diminish the US figure as a global peace broker, likely projecting a lack of control over its well-established alliances before the international community. The US will very likely mobilize with preemptive measures, acting as a mediator between the two states, which will likely avoid a Qatar Armed Forces-led escalation. Additional foreign actors like the UAE and Jordan are unlikely to follow US-moderate measures, likely acting unilaterally and contributing to fast-paced evolving regional tension.


Who will it directly impact:

  • Hamas leadership currently in Doha

  • Qatari citizens

  • Qatar Armed Forces

  • Qatari government

  • Foreign militaries stationed at Al Udeid Air Base, including:  

    • United States Air Force (USAF)

    • Royal Air Force (RAF)

  • US Embassies in Doha

  • International diplomatic missions in Doha

  • Israeli citizens

  • IDF and ISA

  • Israeli government

[1] Alabama ANG F35s depart for Bamboo Eagle 25-3 by Tech. Sgt. Joshua Smoot, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)

[3] @netanyahu, X, September 9, 2025, https://x.com/netanyahu/status/1965417269837602943 

[5]Ibid

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