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MEXICAN NAVAL AUTHORITIES CARRIED OUT A DEADLY RAID AGAINST LOS MAYOS, AND THE US DEPLOYED ICE AGENTS TO AIRPORTS TO HELP DURING STAFFING SHORTAGES

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March 19-25, 2026 | Issue 12 - NORTHCOM Team

Michela Sereno, Julia Ruiz Redel, Dominic Perfetti, Christian Jackson, Sharon Preci, Matthew George, Noah Clarke

Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor

 

Military Unit Conducting a Raid[1]


Date: March 19, 2026 

Location: Culiacan, Sinaloa State, Mexico

Parties involved: Mexico; Mexican government; government bodies; Mexican military; Naval authorities; authorities; law enforcement; armed militant organization and Sinaloa cartel faction Los Mayos; key individuals; cartel factions; former regional Los Mayos leader Omar Oswaldo Torres; 11 members killed in the operation; cartels; cartel subgroups; cartel personnel; cartel leadership; mid-level commanders; communities; civilians, state institutions

The event: Mexican Naval authorities conducted a raid against Los Mayos, killing 11 alleged members and arresting Torres.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

  • This operation will likely reduce opportunities for intelligence collection, as lethal engagements eliminate the possibility of extracting information through interrogation, reducing the capacity to anticipate cartel adaptations to enforcement pressure. That limitation in intelligence collection will likely reduce insight into cartels’ personnel and operational strategies, constraining the government’s ability to conduct targeted operations on key individuals. This will have a roughly even chance of forcing the authorities to focus on broader and more publicly visible operations to demonstrate continued action against cartels, increasing the likelihood of collateral disruption and civilian harm. That pressure to demonstrate visible results will likely compel authorities to prioritize measurable outputs, such as seizure volumes and raid frequencies, over the strategic dismantlement of cartel leadership networks, likely reinforcing a reactive enforcement posture to which they will have a roughly even chance of adapting.

  • The raid will likely contribute to altercations within the Los Mayos, very likely hindering long-term stabilization by replacing a predictable criminal structure with smaller, volatile factions. The capture of the leader and killing of key members will likely increase violence within the faction, as mid-level commanders and subgroups within the cartel will likely compete to assert control and secure their positions. This competition will likely trigger internal fragmentation into semiautonomous cells, likely increasing operational unpredictability. This decentralization will likely increase localized and opportunistic violence, as smaller cells that lack central coordination and stable revenue will likely prioritize short-term, locally extractive activities to sustain themselves.  

  • Reliance on lethal military operations will likely normalize violence as a standard government procedure, decreasing confidence in local authorities to combat cartels effectively. Regular counter-cartel operations will likely condition both law enforcement and government bodies to adopt lethal force as a default response, shifting the public perception of the authorities from protectors to perpetrators of violence. This perception will very likely promote distrust in state institutions, likely making communities less willing to cooperate openly with the authorities responsible for their security. Limited intelligence flows will likely reduce the effectiveness of law enforcement operations, likely constraining the state’s ability to anticipate, prevent, and respond to criminal threats.


Date: March 23, 2026

Location: USA

Parties involved: USA; US government; US Department of Homeland Security (DHS); US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE); ICE agents; ICE personnel; anti-ICE protesters; Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents; federal security actors; law enforcement actors; enforcement personnel; civilians; protestors; bystanders; moderate observers; travelers

The event: The US government deployed ICE agents to multiple US airports to assist TSA agents facing staffing shortages.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • The deployment of ICE agents in airports will likely lead to confrontations with anti-ICE protestors, as ICE's presence in high-density/high-stress environments will likely create friction with both bystanders and protestors. These confrontations in high-pressure conditions will likely impair agents’ operational judgment due to their inexperience in effectively de-escalating civilian hostility, likely leading them to deviate from field protocols and established use-of-force standards. Visible protocol breaches will very likely erode trust and push moderate observers toward active resistance against ICE. The DHS will very likely utilize the public resistance to justify increased funding to support the wide-scale deployment of ICE, likely creating a feedback loop where more civil resistance and arrests will fuel the very system it seeks to oppose.  

  • The deployment of ICE agents will very likely normalize the presence of armed law enforcement actors in civilian infrastructure, likely increasing federal reliance on enforcement personnel. ICE personnel will likely assume high-visibility roles such as ID checks and crowd management in airport security areas, integrating enforcement actors into routine operations despite the temporary staffing justification. Repeated exposure to ICE agents in protected environments such as airports will likely lead travelers to perceive their presence as a legitimate extension of standard security practice, likely reinforcing political incentives to reuse ICE agents in other civilian transit checkpoints, such as major train terminals and subway entry points. This dynamic will very likely deepen reliance on enforcement-driven solutions across federal security actors, likely generating operational divergence in security practices and degrading aviation security effectiveness.


[1] Recon Fort Souda Raid [Image 8 of 10], by Corporal Henry Rodriguez II, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)/Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD/DoW endorsement.)

[2] At least 11 killed in raid on cartel in northern Mexico's Sinaloa, Reuters, March 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/least-11-killed-security-operation-northern-mexico-2026-03-19/ 

[3] ICE agents deployed to more than a dozen US airports amid staffing gaps, Reuters, March 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ice-agents-begin-deploying-some-us-airports-2026-03-23/

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