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YELLOW FEVER OUTBREAK KILLS AT LEAST 34 IN COLOMBIA, US SUPREME COURT HEARS A CASE RELATED TO LGBTQ+ CONTENT IN SCHOOLS, AND EXPERTS SAY THE US IS HEADING TOWARD COMPETITIVE AUTHORITARIANISM

April 17-23, 2025 | Issue 14 - NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM

Katya Burklin, Tate English, Daniela De Luca, Jacob Robison, Benedetta Magnante Fralleone, Julia Eder, Ashley Snyder

Samantha Mikulskis, Editor; Radhika Ramalinga Venkatachalam, Senior Editor


Yellow Fever Vaccination[1]


Date: April 16, 2025

Location: Colombia

Parties involved: Colombia; Colombian government; Colombian criminal networks and armed groups; left-wing FARC dissident group, the Carlos Patino Front; black market foragers in Colombia; corrupt border facilitators in Colombia; street-level intermediaries in Colombia; high-risk individuals moving through Colombian tourist hubs

The event: A yellow fever outbreak has killed at least 34 people, prompting the requirement of proof of vaccination when traveling from high-risk areas.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

  • Counterfeit yellow fever vaccination cards will almost certainly elevate cross-border security risks in high-tourism regions, including Tolima, during peak travel periods like Easter. As anti-vaccination sentiment deepens, the request for counterfeit vaccination documents will likely surge and sustain a market for individuals likely seeking to bypass immunization requirements. This demand will likely attract criminal networks, including black-market forgers and corrupt border facilitators, who will likely exploit covert channels, such as street-level intermediaries, to enable legal crossings with falsified health certificates. Counterfeit credentials at legal border crossings will likely strain inspection efforts, slow verification, and enable high-risk individuals to move through tourist hubs, likely increasing the risk of disease spread.

  • The yellow fever outbreak in Tolima will almost certainly intensify existing health aid gaps in rural municipalities, as limited medical infrastructure and the operational presence of groups like the Carlos Patino Front will likely hinder state response efforts. Armed non-state actors will very likely exploit these gaps by distributing aid, securing disease-affected zones in exchange for community loyalty, and asserting control in areas where the state cannot operate reliably. This appropriation of public health functions will likely blur the boundaries between government and insurgent influence, lessening institutional legitimacy and complicating the reassertion of governmental control. As health service delivery becomes contested, the outbreak will almost certainly evolve into a multidimensional security threat, likely entrenching armed actors, fragmenting territorial governance, and almost certainly escalating the risk of protracted instability.


Date: April 20, 2025

Location: USA

Parties involved: US, US Supreme Court; US schools; US students, parents, and peers of students; Montgomery County Public Schools in Maryland; LGBTQ+ students; LGBTQ+ community; LGBTQ+ supporters; closeted students and youth; US conservative parental rights group Moms for Liberty; US anti-LGBTQ+ advocacy organization Alliance Defending Freedom; social media platforms

The event: The Supreme Court will hear a case after religious parents sued Montgomery County Public Schools for denying opt-outs from LGBTQ+ inclusive storybooks, claiming a violation of their First Amendment rights.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • Efforts to allow parental opt-outs for LGBTQ+ inclusive storybooks will very likely send a message to closeted students that their identities are controversial or inappropriate, likely inflicting long-term emotional harm. Even if the material remains within the curriculum, separating certain students from the content will likely validate exclusionary beliefs, very likely making LGBTQ+ youth feel stigmatized and unwelcome. This perceived social rejection will likely increase psychological distress among closeted youth, almost certainly heightening the risk of self-harm, suicidal ideation, and resentment toward family, peers, and school authorities. These emotions will very likely escalate into verbal or physical altercations, likely deepening LGBTQ+ isolation in schools through the normalization of identity-based violence.

  • Groups such as  Moms for Liberty and the Alliance Defending Freedom will likely use disinformation to promote parental opt-outs from LGBTQ+ classes, likely aiming to reduce the inclusion of such content in schools. Disinformation campaigns targeted at education networks will very likely use loaded language in social media and community events, including referring to LGBTQ+ educational material as “indoctrination," likely driving parents to perceive it as harmful to children’s well-being. This fear-based rhetoric will likely lead to an increased mobilization of parents engaging in protests and school board confrontations to limit LGBTQ+ content in schools. Increased pressure to limit LGBTQ+ education will lead to a roughly even chance of schools moving beyond opt-out policies and adopting more exclusive measures, such as requiring signed parental consent to proceed with LGBTQ+ classes, likely increasing systemic exclusion.


Date: April 22, 2025

Location: USA

Parties involved: US; US government; Trump administration; US law enforcement; US political figures; ideological groups and individuals in the US; US far-left and far-right actors; Trump opponents; US media organizations; US government reporters; US independent reporters; US government critics; US voters; US corporate technocrats

The event: Over 500 experts believe the US is drifting toward a form of government known as competitive authoritarianism, characterized by democratic institutions but hinging on centralized abuse of power.[4]

Analysis & Implications:

  • An authoritarian shift in the US government will likely trigger an escalation cycle where the erosion of civil liberties, including civic participation, likely fuels public discontent and increases the risk of radicalization. As institutional avenues restrict political expression, groups and individuals across different ideological lines will likely radicalize and view confrontational tactics like violent protests as the only remaining option. This radicalization is likely to manifest as resistance from far-left and far-right actors, including attacks on law enforcement, political figures, and symbolic targets, likely increasing government tactics such as mass surveillance, preventive arrests, and militarized policing to contain unrest. This dynamic likely accelerates the country’s authoritarian shift with a self-reinforcing cycle where state repression likely intensifies radicalization, and radicalized resistance likely justifies authoritarian measures.

  • The Trump administration’s shift from a liberal democracy to a competitive authoritarian government will almost certainly restrict information by prioritizing pro-Trump media organizations' access to new information and events. The shift will almost certainly further limit how US media presents information by pressuring news organizations to exclusively focus on and propagate material that supports the Trump administration. The changes in the US news organizations will very likely create confusion for readers as they struggle to differentiate between biased governmental news reporters and independent reporting, very likely making it harder to distinguish reliable information from disinformation. The need to fact-check information or go to international sources for news will very likely tire readers, very likely normalizing partisan coverage and reducing public resistance to party-line narratives.

  • The shift toward competitive authoritarianism will very likely create an enduring cycle of elite power consolidation, almost certainly diminishing civilian trust in electoral processes. Prominent corporate technocrats will almost certainly leverage their wealth to strengthen political connections and align their business models with government decisions, ensuring more influence than the average American. These ties will likely result in corporate actors securing key governmental roles where they will almost certainly shape policies to their advantage and silence critics through defamation lawsuits. The gradual curtailing of institutional checks and balances will very likely undermine government accountability, almost certainly reinforcing voter doubt in the state’s ability to enact meaningful change.


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[1] Syringe and Vaccine Vial, generated by a third party database. (This image pixelation has been enhanced by a third party.)

[2] Colombia declares health emergency after dozens die of yellow fever, BBC, April 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj68x4p412eo 

[3] Supreme Court to hear religious freedom case involving LGBTQ+ storybooks, The Washington Post, April 2025, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/20/supreme-court-religious-rights-lgbtq-books/ 

[4] Hundreds of scholars say U.S. is swiftly heading toward authoritarianism, NPR, April 2025, https://www.npr.org/2025/04/22/nx-s1-5340753/trump-democracy-authoritarianism-competive-survey-political-scientist

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