CHINA DISCLOSES SOME SPECIFICS OF THE DF-5 INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE AND RUSSIA REDEPLOYS TU-160 STRATEGIC BOMBERS TO ANADYR AIRBASE, 500 KM FROM ALASKA

June 5-11, 2025 | Issue 21 - Weapons & Tactics 

Giovanni Lamberti, Miles Reever, Sarah Nag, Nicholas Novak, Agathe Labadi, Sue Friend, Laura Fuchs, Lucy Gibson, Isabelle Hilyer-Jones Archie Archie, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Missile[1]

Date: June 5, 2025

Location: China

Parties involved: Chinese President Xi Jinping; China; Chinese Communist Party (CCP); CCP committee Politburo; Politburo members; Chinese military; People’s Liberation Army (PLA); PLA generals; internal Chinese audiences; Taiwan

The event: China has disclosed some DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) specifics, such as range, level of precision, and physical dimensions.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• China will likely continue to exhibit its nuclear power through public demonstrations of advanced capabilities, highlighting range and precision, to underscore Taiwan’s lack of nuclear deterrence.  This announcement very likely aims at threatening Taiwan with a Chinese nuclear assault, likely increasing the narrative of a diminished Taiwanese energy security, following the closure of Taiwan’s last nuclear reactor. Taiwan’s reduced energy security likely heightens its vulnerability to attacks on critical infrastructure, prompting China to hint at its ability to strike diversified targets on the island. China will likely employ subliminal messaging via nuclear-focused propaganda as gray zone tactics targeting Taiwan, likely blending them with the publicity of strategic programs projecting conventional Chinese military power, like the Fujian aircraft carrier’s sea trials.

• Xi will likely leverage the public disclosure of the DF-5 missile capabilities to reassert authority domestically amid a deteriorating power base. The disclosure very likely has internal audiences as a secondary target, such as Politburo members and PLA generals, specifically appealing to the CCP and military ranks, where confidence has weakened. This strategy is likely part of a controlled narrative to restore institutional credibility through shows of military strength following growing leadership instability and 2024 purges. China will likely increase the frequency and visibility of domestic military demonstrations, likely seeking to reinforce Xi’s grip on power and manage internal disagreements regarding policy direction without direct measures, such as arrests or purges.  

Date: June 8, 2025

Location: Anadyr, Russia

Parties involved: Russia;  Ukraine; US; US Pacific Command (PACOM); US Northern Command (NORTHCOM); US allies; North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD); Canada; NATO; allied forces

The event: Moscow redeployed at least two Tu-160 strategic bombers, “Blackjack,” to Anadyr airbase in eastern Russia, 500 km from Alaska.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Russia will very likely treat the Tu-160 fleet at Anadyr as a strategic reserve, prioritizing their preservation through geographic isolation over immediate operational use against Ukraine. Russia will almost certainly accept ongoing logistical difficulties at Anadyr, such as dependence on airlifted fuel, maintenance shortages, and seasonal maritime supply, to prevent its strategic bomber fleet’s losses, following Ukraine’s long-range strikes. This sustained logistical burden will very likely limit Russia’s ability to conduct rapid, long-range conventional strikes or flexible power projections from the Arctic, likely reducing its options for sudden escalation or surprise attacks on Ukraine. Russia will likely maintain the Tu-160 fleet at Anadyr as a survivable nuclear deterrent, using its presence as a credible retaliatory force in the event of a major conflict, increasing pressure on NATO, and complicating allied defense planning.

• Russia’s redeployment of Tu-160s will very likely trigger heightened military alertness among US and allied forces in the Arctic and Pacific. Russia will likely conduct highly visible Tu-160 sorties near US and Canadian airspace, testing NORAD response times, very likely eliciting a revision in regional defense postures. These flights will almost certainly prompt NORAD, US NORTHCOM, and PACOM to intensify surveillance operations and encourage closer coordination with Canadian and allied Arctic defense networks. As these Russian sorties grow, the US and its allies will very likely accelerate investments in Arctic military infrastructure, including forward-deployed radar systems and integrated early warning assets.

• The simultaneous deployment of high-value radar systems such as the Podlet 1-K and P-18 very likely indicates Russia’s intent to station the two Tu-160s at Anadyr air base for an extended period of time. S-400 or S-300 surface-to-air missile systems will likely integrate the radar systems to defend the Tu-160s against long-range drones and ballistic missiles, enhancing the site’s security. Russia will likely deploy additional mobile infrastructure for logistics and technical support, such as temporary aircraft hangars, to sustain long-range operations of the Tu-160 from this site. These developments will very likely enhance Anadyr air base into a forward operating point, significantly extending Russia’s strategic reach in the broader Pacific region up to a radius of 6,000 km from the base.

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[1] Missile, generated by a third party database

[2] China reveals secret 4-megaton nuclear warhead with 7,500-mile destruction range, Interesting Engineering, June 2025, https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-nuclear-missile-can-hit-anywhere-in-us 

[3] Russia hides Tu-160 bombers in America’s Shadow, Defence Blog, June 2025, https://defence-blog.com/russia-hides-tu-160-bombers-in-americas-shadow/