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FLASH ALERT: US AND ISRAELI STRIKES KILLED IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER ALI KHAMENEI AND HIGH-RANKING MILITARY OFFICIALS; IRAN’S ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS ANNOUNCED RETALIATORY ATTACKS

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Jacob Fields, Lizel Klaasen, Alexandra Valdez, Bhavya Jain, Michela Sereno, Sharon Preci, Sasha Sánchez, Khushi Salian, Sofía Vilas, Jaydn Burgin, Lorenzo Calavaro, Insa Reblin, NORTHCOM, CENTCOM & SOUTHCOM Teams

Elizabeth Fignar, Alessandro Portolano, Elena Alice Rossetti, Clemence Van Damme Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

March 1, 2026

Retaliation Attacks [1]


The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to the citizens and military of Israel, the US, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, who have received threats on US regional bases and collateral damage following the Israeli and US missile strikes in Iran. On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a collaborative attack on major cities across Iran, with the White House and President Donald Trump confirming the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.[2] Shortly after, state media confirmed the deaths of the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a top security advisor, sparking a response by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, threatening to launch a major offensive operation against Israeli and US bases in surrounding countries.[3] This attack follows the deployment of a warship fleet and fighter jets to the waters surrounding Iran after Trump claimed Iran was building a nuclear program that could pose a direct threat to the US.[4] During Trump's public announcement, he urged the Iranian citizens to “take over the government” once operations were complete, stating that “[Iran] will be yours.”[5] Iran has retaliated with attacks on US military bases in surrounding countries, such as Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, with reports suggesting the latter are expecting more attacks.[6]


CTG is on HIGH alert due to the threat of retaliatory attacks by Iranian military officials, proxies, or aligned Iraqi Shiite and Syrian militia groups against US and regional targets following US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Statements from the Iranian cabinet indicate that further strikes on US bases, embassies, and assets in the region will VERY LIKELY occur. Israeli military personnel and citizens will VERY LIKELY remain targets of Iranian retaliatory strikes. The deaths of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the head of Iran’s IRGC, and a top security official will LIKELY lead to internal power struggles within the temporarily established Iranian council due to a power vacuum. Trump’s statements urging Iranian citizens to “take over the government”[7] will VERY LIKELY lead to violent escalations in regional protests between those supporting and opposing US and Israeli strikes. Citizens in Iran and surrounding countries will VERY LIKELY be at risk from missiles and debris from intercepted missiles. Widespread fear of further attacks will LIKELY lead to panic among citizens in conflict zones, causing increased violence and civil unrest. Iranian retaliatory strikes will LIKELY lead to direct naval conflicts in the Gulf region, VERY LIKELY disrupting global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and LIKELY spiking the prices of oil, food, and essential goods in the region.  Iran’s proxies across the Middle East will LIKELY expand their support for the IRGC through coordinated retaliatory attacks against the US bases and Israeli cities, LIKELY disguising IRGC retaliatory strikes as their own attacks, which will LIKELY provide Tehran deniability and blur the line for US and Israeli response strikes accountability. Regional airspace will VERY LIKELY remain closed following attacks at major travel hubs, including those in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.  


At approximately 0700 local time on February 28, 2026,[8] the US and Israel launched a coordinated military attack on Iran, named "Operation Epic Fury" by the US and "Operation Roaring Lion" by Israel.  The attacks aimed at multiple targets and leadership in Tehran, Iran, killing the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top lieutenants, Ali Shamkhani and IRGC Commander, Mohammad Pakpour.[9] Officials have reported civilian casualties, including several wounded at a girls' school in the south of Tehran.[10] The strikes follow apparent failed agreements during recent US-Iran talks, pressuring Iran to constrain its nuclear program, and concerns regarding its warships in the region.[11]


Iran retaliated through drone attacks and ballistic missile strikes on Israel and US military installations in the Persian Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar,[12] and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).[13] As of early March 1, escalation has erupted, including gatherings in Iran with chants “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” at the Hazrat Masoumeh shrine in Qom, Central Iran.[14] Trump has urged Iranians to take this opportunity and bring about regime change.[15]


The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Larijani, reported in state media that a temporary council comprising the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian Judiciary Chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and a jurist from the Guardian Council will govern the country.  The Assembly of Experts of Iran will be in charge of the election of the country's supreme leader.[16]


Multi-Layered Retaliation: Ground Attacks, Proxy Activations, and Cyber Warfare

Iran’s immediate focus will almost certainly remain on land, targeting US and Israeli military assets in the region. These attacks will likely evolve into a multi-layered retaliation approach that combines direct, localized missile and drone attacks with expanded proxy activations in the West, as well as cyber and hybrid warfare techniques.


Iran will likely mobilize the Axis of Resistance, an Iranian-led, anti-Western, and anti-Israel military alliance of state and non-state actors in the Middle East formed to counter US and Israeli influence. Key role players will very likely include Hezbollah sleeper cells in Lebanon, Europe, and the US; Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria. Coordinated attacks will likely continue targeting US and Israeli military and strategic locations across the Middle East. Geopolitics and cross-border alliances will very likely be crucial in the continued bombings, driven by political alliances rather than just local efforts. Destabilizing attacks might include maritime attacks in the Red Sea by the Houthis, continued rocket fire from Hezbollah, and continued attacks on US targets by Iraqi militias.  

           

The immediate threat to individuals, specifically Westerners and Jewish people, will very likely increase, including possible kidnappings and assassinations.  Kidnappings or assassination attempts are likely to be deployed as part of retaliation strikes.  High-profile targets are almost certainly a priority for Iranian Intelligence in retaliation for the killing of their leadership, which will likely include journalists, business travellers, academics, and US Embassy personnel.  


Iran will likely launch tandem attacks, such as hybrid warfare alongside misinformation campaigns, or cyber attacks with physical strikes, for maximum impact and destruction. Hybrid warfare will likely target infrastructure, including sabotage of critical infrastructure within Israel and military bases and collection points crucial to the US’s ability to launch attacks.  Iran will likely launch disinformation campaigns to control the narrative. Iran’s disinformation campaigns will very likely be linked to martyrdom, exacerbating domestic divisions, and fabricating evidence to support excessive violence and human rights violations by the US and Israel. Civil infrastructure, including airports, transportation hubs, energy sites, and areas with large civilian presence, will likely become targets as part of broader destabilization attempts designed to cause economic disruption and spread fear.    


Iranian cyber forces will very likely launch coordinated cyberattacks, most likely combining state-sponsored actors with hacktivists. Cyber attacks will very likely be synchronized with kinetic or physical strikes to maximize damage, very likely targeting critical infrastructure, financial services, and government networks in the US and Israel.  Cyber attacks will very likely be a leading approach to spread disinformation in an attempt to discredit US and Israeli efforts and gain sympathy and support for alleged human rights abuses, claimed targeted attacks on civilians, and similar.   Strait of Hormuz Disruption and Energy Shock IRGC Navy will likely intensify its operations in the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran's new leaders will likely seek to demonstrate continuity in their deterrent posture amid internal uncertainty over succession. Threats of waterway closures due to Iran's military interceptions will likely act as a key piece of geopolitical and economic leverage by increasing instability in global oil prices and spikes in shipping costs without triggering a formal blockade. Rather than pursuing a full closure of the waterway, Iranian retaliation will likely focus on degrading the US naval security structure that protects energy transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz, likely including attempts at targeting carrier groups in the region, such as the USS Abraham Lincoln. In response, the US will likely target Iran’s anti-ship missile batteries along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz to assert operational control over ship passages and deny Iran the ability to weaponize the chokepoint. Confirmed strikes against US military bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE will likely reinforce Iran’s strategy of targeting US naval capabilities by demonstrating Iran’s ability to pressure broader security networks that protect regional energy routes. Short-term disruption or increased security in the Strait will likely have major global strategic consequences, making the energy domain a central focus of this conflict.

This escalation will likely expand towards the Persian Gulf, through drone activities and threats against commercial tankers. The extended reach of commercial disruptions will pose risks to global supply chains by limiting regional maritime trade, raising consumer and energy prices, and threatening global energy security. A shift toward the Persian Gulf will likely represent a strategic pivot point from the Middle East, expanding the current tension.  

Locations Hit by US/Israeli Strikes and Iranian Retaliatory Attacks_ February 28, 2026-March 1, 2026[17] Note: View the details of the locations attacked by downloading the full PDF located at the bottom of this report

Impact on Neighboring Countries:  Humanitarian Crisis Iran’s retaliatory strikes via proxies such as Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas will likely create a spillover effect on neighbors like Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, likely escalating to a regional war. The missiles' debris and drone strikes in the neighboring Gulf countries will likely crack the perception of security,  which will very likely trigger panic among the Indian overseas factory workers currently working in affected countries. The increased risk of Iran’s strikes will likely cause overseas factory workers to face an evacuation rush or abandonment by their host country, with a roughly even chance of factory agents exploiting the situation and pushing the workers into debt bondage.   The prospect of prolonged civil war in Iran will likely trigger a significant refugee flow across Iran’s borders. ​​Official border crossings, particularly in north-eastern regions into Turkey, such as the Kapıköy Border Gate, will likely become bottlenecked, likely pushing Iranian civilians to pursue unofficial routes like the Maku Van Corridor. Refugees will likely seek to go across Armenia or Azerbaijan, through corridors such as Norduz-Agarak and Astara, with potential risks of becoming chokepoints. Discrepancies of unreported border crossings will likely lead to a rapid depletion of humanitarian aid in neighboring countries. Deficits in food, medical supplies, and temporary shelters at refugee camps will likely increase intra-group conflicts among Iranian refugee populations and with host communities. These tensions will likely increase vulnerabilities to insurgent recruitment efforts and gender-based violence (GBV) among displaced groups.

The host countries of Iran’s displacement, such as Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan, will likely see an increase in protests for the next two years, especially in the refugee-hosting areas. The perceptions of rising costs, unemployment, and crime will likely create a sense of injustice and resentment within some host communities, leading to public dissatisfaction. If aid to refugees seems to exceed the government's support for its own citizens, the citizens will likely feel left behind, likely strengthening the Us vs. Them narrative, increasing protests. Impacts on the US Democrats will very likely question the scale of the attacks and frame them as an unnecessary use of force, while republicans will likely welcome them as a necessary intervention. Protests across the US will very likely increase in the following hours. Protest groups such as CodePink and ANSWER Coalition will likely encourage continued anti-war protests. Demonstrators will likely argue that the Trump administration is endangering US service members, very likely framing the attacks as part of a series of events to distract the American people from other serious issues, including Trump's alleged involvement in the Epstein saga and continued dissatisfaction with ICE and immigration-handling. Protestors will very likely continue demands for Congressional intervention to limit attacks, thereby linking the incident as unlawful without proper evidence to justify a full-scale attack. The federal government and law enforcement will almost certainly be on high alert for public unrest and protests in retaliation for the US attacks on Iran. Tensions at protests and clashes with law enforcement will likely increase, as American public opinion will likely try to take action in preventing a repeat of the Afghanistan war and exit in the Middle East.

Iranian Leadership Vacuum and Regime Instability

The attack that killed approximately 40 senior regime figures will very likely reduce the regime’s leadership capacity and dismantle the command structure. IRGC will almost certainly face severe power struggles and instability as it establishes new leadership. They will likely revert to an interim military-type council, acting as a military junta to prevent a total collapse. Interim measures will very likely aim to instill fear and suppression to maintain control. The death of significant decision-makers, including key IRGC commanders and missile program leaders, will very likely negatively affect military operations, although retaliatory attacks will almost certainly continue in the immediate future. The disruption in the chain of command will likely result in uncoordinated and erratic retaliatory strikes. The loss of leaders in control of surveillance and offensive planning will likely reduce the accuracy of the defence of airspace and coordinated drone attacks. The flow of intelligence through senior, well-connected leadership will likely lead to critical delays in decision-making regarding targets and the value of intelligence.  


The current opposition is likely not sufficiently coordinated to take over governance amid the chaos. The regime and IRGC will almost certainly coordinate efforts to increase immediate attacks against US and Israel targets. They will likely increase anti-Western rhetoric and very likely use martyrdom to justify suppressing dissent and retaliation. Increased suppression and control will very likely be deployed to maintain control. Trump's continued encouragement for Iranians to force regime change remains unlikely in the current uncertain political circumstances.


The initial strike suggests a prelude to long-term US attempts at total regime destruction, with a low chance of further negotiations. Retaliation attacks by Iran are likely a show of force aimed at destabilizing US capabilities, rather than an attempt to initiate a full-scale war.

Iranian Societal Impact Divisions surrounding the attacks on the Iranian regime, combined with continued air strikes, will very likely exacerbate existing internal conflict, increasing localized instability and economic breakdown. Weakening central authority will likely intensify competition between local actors seeking to secure influence, deepening ethnic and political polarization. Groups such as the Balochi Popular Fighters Front (JMM) will likely seek to leverage cross-border militant networks to conduct localized asymmetric attacks against IRGC forces. Kurdish political coalitions such as the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan (CPFIK), which are predominantly secular, will likely seek to expand regional political influence through localized political mobilization and governance consolidation rather than aligning with extremist actors. Divergent ethnic loyalties and competing views toward the Islamic Republic will very likely result in violent clashes between citizens and local regime-linked factions, deepening societal divisions.

Some Iranian citizens supporting the Islamic Republic will likely view humanitarian facilities and NGOs, such as Doctors Without Borders and Relief International, as supporting Western interests or different ethnic factions, with a roughly even chance of leading to increased violence towards medical clinics, refugee support centers, and disaster response facilities. Violence towards support centers will likely lead to a long-term disruption of health operations, withdrawal of regional humanitarian aid, and infrastructure disruption, creating lasting difficulties for citizens' survival.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will likely disrupt regional shipping routes and supply chains, limiting civilian access to necessary goods throughout the Middle East, such as food and medical supplies. A blockade would very likely disrupt the export of oil, likely causing a severe loss of revenue for the Iranian economy and depriving it of its main source of income, as it remains a critical portion of Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Prices of food, fuel, and raw materials will very likely rise in Iran, limiting Iranian citizens’ ability to access vital supplies. Scarcity of goods will likely lead to increased fighting between political factions, such as the IRGC, hardline factions, and ethnic minorities, likely normalizing the use of necessary goods as tools to leverage power over opposing groups. Social unrest from resource competition will likely lead to increased risks for diplomatic missions, cultural institutions, and allies’ overseas military bases, likely perceived as symbols of US and Israeli interference. Iranian proxies such as Hamas and the Houthis will likely use civil unrest as a cover for further attacks against infrastructure, including foreign embassies and military bases.


Recommendations

  • The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that the US and US allies’ overseas military bases within Iran’s missile range amplify their surveillance on further Iranian strikes. Military bases should prepare themselves for potential cyber-attacks or hybrid attacks and maintain constant communications with their respective countries. The bases should coordinate with the host nations in evacuating and sheltering citizens in areas near the military bases to avoid casualties from potential attacks.

  • Countries operating naval trade in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea should exercise caution against future attacks or potential crossfire. Countries should enhance their security measures to protect their vessels and personnel, advising them to contact any foreign maritime operations departments and organizations operating in the region, such as the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), for support or to consider alternative routes.  

  • Civilians in Iran’s neighbouring countries and in Europe should avoid concentrating around US embassies or consulates. Civilians should avoid areas surrounding US-related institutions, like American educational sites or cultural centers, and other international institutions administered by the US’s allies.

  • Tourists should avoid travelling through the Persian Gulf countries or Israel. Foreign tourists already in these areas should request their respective country’s consular assistance for advice on shelters and live updates on the conflict and security risks. These tourists should keep their travel documentation at hand in case of emergency evacuations and follow their embassy updates diligently.

  • Overseas Iranian workers in countries affected by Iran’s strikes should completely avoid areas near state institutions, protest sites, and Iranian embassies.

  • Civilians in the US and other allied countries, like Israel, should refrain from gathering around protests that have the potential to become violent to ensure personal safety. Civilians should avoid areas near state institutions and avoid travelling in large groups. Immigrant civilians, especially from the Middle East and Jewish people, should take extra precautions for the next few days to avoid potential areas of protests.

  • Law enforcement in the US should monitor anti-US and anti-Israeli sentiments over citizens' dissatisfaction with US strikes. Police should also increase surveillance in Jewish and Muslim-dominated communities across the country for potential attacks or demonstrations of hate speech. Law enforcement should monitor key social media handles like X, Instagram, and TikTok for any radicalized plans of demonstrations or attacks.

  • Civilians in Iran, especially in Tehran, Isfahan, Karaj, and Kermanshah, should avoid areas closer to the Afghanistan and Pakistan borders due to the ongoing crossfire between the countries and move towards Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan for refuge. Civilians residing near the Persian Gulf should seek refuge in the Yasuj region to avoid potential counterstrikes from Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar.

  • Civilians in Iran and in the Gulf states should gather food supplies sufficient for at least 72 hours to remain safe in a shelter or basement. They should also avoid public infrastructure spaces like schools, community areas like parks, tourist attraction spots, and refrain from travelling in larger groups.

  • The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) administered international refugee camps and other humanitarian organizations across Iran should stockpile emergency aid and food rations for the longer term. These organizations should also monitor the potential threat in their surroundings and ensure adequate security for their personnel and civilians under them. In the longer term, these international organizations should limit the intake of newer refugees, especially from Afghanistan, until there is adequate availability of resources to tend to them.

  • Independent journalists in Iran should be aware of misinformation and disinformation in a time when each government intends to control the narrative. Independent journalists should prioritize the verification of sources over the speed of information dissemination. Journalists should also exercise caution in ground reporting in targeted locations and avoid areas near the State institutions


CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the rapid escalation of attacks on US and Israeli bases in countries that neighbor Iran. The situation will likely worsen in the coming days as the loss of Iranian senior leadership will create internal instability within Iran’s political and military decision-making. This event will likely increase violent civil unrest within Middle Eastern militant groups that condemn the US-Israeli strikes, as protests and attacks on US embassies intensify in Iran and Iraq. Concerns over confrontation between Iran and Western-aligned states will very likely worsen geopolitical tensions, likely increasing the risk of a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.


Analysis indicates there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that Iran will continue coordinated retaliatory attacks against US and Israeli interests, and regional allies’ infrastructure. Retaliatory attacks will VERY LIKELY include missile and drone strikes in neighboring countries, weakening the perception of security and increasing panic where US military assets are present in the region. Further retaliation will LIKELY include hybrid warfare tactics such as cyber operations and disinformation campaigns targeting critical infrastructure, government networks, and civilian populations. Regime instability will VERY LIKELY increase the activity of hostile proxies, ethnic and political factions, and militia groups seeking to fill leadership vacuums. Continued attacks and maritime disruptions in and around the Strait of Hormuz will VERY LIKELY pose long-term stabilization threats to Iranian civil society, humanitarian operations, and global supply chains.

[1] Missile Launch at White Sands Missile Range, by John Drew Hamilton, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)/Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD/DoW endorsement.)

[2] @WhiteHouse, X, February 28, 2026, https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2027863139136479347 

[3] Iran’s supreme leader killed in major attack by US and Israel, KOB4, February 2026, https://www.kob.com/news/top-news/irans-supreme-leader-killed-in-major-attack-by-us-and-israel/ 

[4] Trump said he 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear program. Now he's threatening to bomb Iran again., NBC News, February 2026, hGulfttps://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-said-obliterateglobal.disruptsd-irans-nuclear-program-now-says-us-may-bomb-iran-rcna260383 

[5] Read Trump's full statement on Iran attacks, PBS, February 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/read-trumps-full-statement-on-iran-attack 

[6] Luxury Dubai hotel hit as Iran launches retaliatory strikes across region, BBC, February 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c204px4zddro

[7]UN Security Council meeting in emergency session over Iran, UN,  February 2026, https://dppa.un.org/en/middle-east-live-un-security-council-meeting-emergency-session-over-iran

[8] Operation Epic Fury and the Remnants of Iran’s Nuclear Program, CSIS, February 2026, https://www.csis.org/analysis/operation-epic-fury-and-remnants-irans-nuclear-program

[9] Israel. US launched strokes as Iranian leader met with inner circle, sources say, Reuters, February 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/israel-us-launched-strikes-iranian-leader-met-with-inner-circle-sources-say-2026-03-01/   

[11] What to know about the new US-Israel attacks on Iran, AP, March 2026, https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-us-israel-trump-979a41042f073f8f4004e34e67b470f5

[12] Ibid  

[13] Iranian missiles shake Gulf cities after US, Israeli strikes on Iran, Reuters, February 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-fires-missiles-gulf-arab-states-one-killed-abu-dhabi-2026-02-28/   

[14] ‘Death to America and Israel’ echoes in Iran as 40 days mourning declared after Khamenei's death | Top photo, Hindustan Times, March 2026, https://www.hindustantimes.com/photos/-death-to-america-and-israel-echoes-in-iran-as-40-days-mourning-declared-after-khameneis-death-top-photos-101772343123600.html 

[15] US and Israel attack Iran as Trump urges Iranians to ‘take over’ the government, NBC News, February 2026, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-israel-attacks-iran-protests-nuin Iran will be in charge of electing;,clear-talks-rcna253784   

[16] The Iranian president, the head of the judiciary, and a jurist assume temporary leadership of the country after Khamenei's death, Europa Press, February 2026, https://www.europapress.es/internacional/noticia-presidente-irani-jefe-poder-judicial-jurista-asumen-liderazgo-temporal-pais-morir-jamenei-20260301072514.html (translated by Google)

[17] Pinpoint Map of Targeted Cities via Google Maps, created by Lavinia Ansalone and Jacob Fields

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