RUSSIA MOVES TO BAN CONTENT LABELED AS EXTREMIST AND CLASHES ERUPT IN DRC DESPITE PEACE DEAL PLANS

July 17-23, 2025 | Issue 27 - Extremism Team

Martina Elena Nitti, Christian Collins, Jacob Robison

Clémence Van Damme, Editor; James Raggio, Senior Editor

Russian Censorship Warning^[1]

Date: July 17, 2025 

Location: Russia

Parties involved: Russia; Russian government; Russian lawmakers; Russian law enforcement; Russian citizens; Russian internet users; Russian individuals linked to extremism; Ukraine

The event: Russian lawmakers proposed a bill to prohibit the search of content deemed “extremist,” including pro-Ukraine messaging and feminist content.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• This legislation’s expanded definition of extremist content will very likely dilute Russian law enforcement's focus by conflating security threats with political dissent, likely reducing the effectiveness of counter-extremism operations. This expansion will likely generate more investigative material for law enforcement, who will likely divert growing amounts of time and personnel toward tracking dissenters, expanding surveillance tasks without clear security justification, and stretching operational bandwidth. This expanded scope will likely strain investigative ability and obscure operational priorities by diverting law enforcement’s attention to lower-risk political expressions. Law enforcement’s increased emphasis on political sentiment will likely develop blind spots regarding individuals linked to extremism,  likely weakening early threat detection and increasing the chance of missing pre-attack indicators.

• This legislation will likely increase self-censorship among Russian internet users by creating legal uncertainty over what qualifies as extremist content, diminishing public engagement. The vague wording of the law will likely make it difficult to distinguish between criminal and legal behavior,  likely leading users to question whether everyday online activity could be punishable. This uncertainty will likely shrink public discourse as people will very likely avoid political or historical topics entirely out of fear, likely weakening civic engagement. This decline in civic engagement will likely reduce collective action and weaken the public’s ability to hold authorities accountable, entrenching the government’s control over political life.

Date: July 20, 2025

Location: Walungu, South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Parties involved: Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); DRC government; DRC civilians; Congolese rebel group allied with the DRC Wazalendo; Wazalendo soldiers; Rwandan-backed Congolese rebel militia group March 23 Movement (M23); M23 fighters; rebel armed groups in the DRC; USA; Qatar; international supporters of the DRC

The event: M23 fighters clashed with Wazalendo soldiers one day after the DRC government and the rebel group declared intent to sign a peace agreement.^[3]    

Analysis & Implications:

• This situation has a roughly even chance of convincing international supporters that peace in the DRC is unsustainable, likely worsening humanitarian conditions by prompting them to withdraw engagement. These stakeholders, such as the US and Qatar, will likely interpret these clashes as indicative that one or both sides were never genuine in their intent, likely undermining confidence in current and future peace agreements. Growing doubts about the viability of a resolution will likely discourage international supporters from investing resources such as humanitarian aid into the DRC, as continued engagement without results could be viewed as a political liability or misuse of aid resources. This will very likely exacerbate the humanitarian situation in the DRC, likely legitimizing rebel armed groups by increasing civilian reliance on them over the government for critical supplies.              

• Continued violence despite peace agreements will likely create mixed signals that fragment local security coordination among civilians. As peace announcements will likely prompt some civilians to test previously dangerous areas while others remain skeptical, communities will likely have diminished shared safety strategies that typically govern group movement and resource-sharing decisions. When violence erupts in areas like Walungu, these fragmented communities will likely experience delayed collective responses, as civilians operating under different threat assumptions fail to coordinate early warning protection measures, including evacuation plans. This breakdown will very likely increase civilian casualties by eliminating the synchronized protective behaviors, such as nighttime blackouts, that emerge when entire communities share unified threat perceptions.        

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[1] Censorship on Russian Computer, generated by a third party image database (Created by AI)

[2] Russian deputies back fines for clicking on 'extremist' content, France 24, July 2025, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250717-russian-deputies-back-fines-for-clicking-on-extremist-content

[3] Au lendemain de l’accord de principes, des combats éclatent entre M23 et Wazalendo à Walungu, Radio Okapi, July 2025, https://www.radiookapi.net/2025/07/20/actualite/securite/au-lendemain-de-laccord-de-principes-des-combats-eclatent-entre-m23-et (translated by Google)