THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STATES THE USA IS IN AN ARMED CONFLICT AGAINST VENEZUELAN DRUG CARTELS, AND JUDGE IMMERGUT BLOCKS TRUMP’S DECISION TO SEND NATIONAL GUARD TROOPS TO PORTLAND, OREGON, USA

October 2-8, 2025 | Issue 38 - NORTHCOM Team

Chiara Michieli, Jacob Robison, Mireia Fonseca, Candela Echeverria

Tom Rochester, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Venezuelan Drug Trafficking Boat^[1]

Date: October 2, 2025

Location: USA

Parties involved: US President Donald Trump; USA; Trump administration; US Congress; US military forces; Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro; Venezuela; Venezuelan drug cartels; Venezuelan criminal groups; Venezuelan network of allegedly corrupted officials and armed factions Cartel of the Suns; Venezuelan transnational criminal organization and prison gang Tren de Aragua; alleged Venezuelan drug-traffickers; non-cartel members; Venezuelan nationalists; Latin American countries

The event: The Trump administration released a memo to Congress stating the USA is involved in an armed conflict against Venezuelan drug cartels.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Trump's declaration will likely be part of a broader strategy of delegitimizing Maduro and increasing pressure for a pro-US regime change in Venezuela, likely prompting diplomatic resistance from Latin American countries. The US will likely position military assets near Venezuela and increase the frequency of strikes against alleged drug-traffickers’ boats, while likely amplifying corruption narratives to undermine public confidence in Maduro's leadership. These tactics will likely elevate the risk of US miscalculation and international backlash, with incidents such as strikes on non-cartel members, very likely straining relations with Latin American countries and enhancing Maduro’s domestic standing among Venezuelan nationalists. This dynamic will very likely present US foreign policy as aggressive and counterproductive, likely creating regional pushback that isolates the US diplomatically and prompts Latin American countries to limit cooperation on key US priorities, such as migration management.        

• The Trump administration's pressure on the Maduro regime will very likely fail to stop the flow of narcotics into the US. Venezuelan criminal groups, such as the Cartel of the Suns and Tren de Aragua, will likely restructure their smuggling operations and adapt their narco distribution networks to evade US forces’ interceptions. They will likely implement air bridges and alternative land routes, with a roughly even chance that traffickers will adopt less visible narco submarines as a preferred distribution means along sea routes. Drug cartels will likely lower illicit traffic in the Caribbean, opting for low-profile routes and undetected networks, with the US president likely exploiting this apparent activity reduction to promote his anti-trafficking strategy as successful.     

Date: October 6, 2025

Location: Portland, Oregon, USA

Parties involved: US President Donald Trump; USA; Trump administration; Trump-appointed US federal judge Karin Immergut; US judges; US lower-profile judges; US judiciary; US judicial institutions; US executive branch; federal authorities; US Marshals Service (USMS); US National Guard troops; Trump supporters; extremist elements within the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement; US society

The event: Immergut temporarily blocked the Trump administration’s deployment of National Guard troops to Portland.^[3] 

Analysis & Implications:

• The judge’s decision will very likely intensify existing political and institutional tensions, revealing an imbalance of power in the US through a delegitimization of the judiciary. The Trump administration will very likely intensify its narrative portraying the judiciary as a national security obstacle, likely undermining some Trump supporters’ trust in an impartial judiciary by accusing the courts of preventing the administration from ensuring public safety. Trump’s undermining of judicial authority will likely freeze coordination between the executive branch and the judiciary, as a polarized society perceives legitimate judicial acts as political decisions, transforming the dispute into an inter-branch standoff. A constitutional strain will very likely persist as judicial institutions lose the ability to resolve conflict through the rule of law, likely deepening institutional and democratic instability and eroding the foundations of legitimate governance.

• Immergut will very likely face an increase in personal attacks as part of a wider pattern of judicial targeting, likely requiring the judiciary to request federal authorities, such as the USMS, to enhance protective measures for US judges ruling on politically sensitive cases. The Trump administration’s criticism of the decision will likely prompt extremist elements within the MAGA movement to coordinate online harassment campaigns, with a roughly even chance of escalation into doxxing and swatting attacks targeting judges’ residences. Such tactics will very likely expose long-standing gaps in judicial security protocols amid limited resources and jurisdictional constraints, likely increasing reliance on the USMS to coordinate threat monitoring and residential protection. This dependence will likely force USMS to divide limited resources between federal protection and immigration enforcement duties, very likely creating uneven threat responses that leave lower-profile judges more exposed to targeted intimidation and physical harm attempts.    

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[1] Coast Guard achieves historic milestone with offload over 76,140 lbs. in illegal narcotics at Port Everglades [Image 4 of 6], by U.S. Coast Guard Southeast District, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)/Department of War(DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD/DoW endorsement.)

[2] Trump says US is in ‘armed conflict’ with drug cartels after ordering strikes in the Caribbean, AP, October 2025, https://apnews.com/article/trump-cartels-armed-conflict-cb57804807eTrump-appointed55a00ace60ad5f4d4f24d 

[3] Judge blocks Trump from sending troops from California to Portland, BBC, October 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c740elm70z7o