A MID-AIR BOMB THREAT SENT VIA IN-FLIGHT HOTSPOT FORCED FLIGHT TK1853 TO LAND IN SPAIN, AND THE CHILEAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED A STATE OF CATASTROPHE OVER WIDESPREAD WILDFIRES

January 15-21, 2026 | Issue 3 -  Emergency Management, Health, and Hazards (EMH2) Team

Jacob Fields, Khushi Salian, Ignacio Valdés Fuentes, Chiara Michieli, Nirmal Jose, Marija Lazicj, Andrew Britland, Nimaya Premachandra, Agathe Labadi

Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor

Commercial Flight^[1]

Date: January 15, 2026

Location: Josep Tarradellas Barcelona-El Prat Airport, Barcelona, Spain

Parties involved: Spain; El Prat airport; Turkish authorities; Turkish public prosecutors' office; local Turkish law enforcement; Turkish public; Turkish Airlines; Turkish Airlines flight TK1853; aircraft; threat actors; potential threat actors; known threat actors; Salafi-jihadist militant group ISIS; pranksters; individuals

The event: A mid-air bomb threat delivered via digital naming on an in-flight internet hotspot forced flight TK1853 to land at El Prat airport.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• There will be a roughly even chance that this bomb threat will prompt Turkish authorities to increase public advocacy for pre-existing legal consequences to deter future incidents of a similar nature. Local Turkish law enforcement will likely emphasize that these hoaxes are criminal acts with major penalties already established under public-panic laws, very likely attempting to prevent digital naming from becoming an effective tool for threat actors. The local Turkish public prosecutors' office will likely highlight these punishments in public briefings to compensate for the limited visibility of past enforcement, very likely aiming to reach impulsive pranksters who do not understand the broader effects of this behavior. There will be a roughly even chance that publicly emphasizing the legal consequences for hoax threats will deter individuals from digital naming pranks and mitigate public anxiety about repeat incidents.

• Potential terrorist actors will very likely copycat the Turkish Airlines incident through bomb-threat messaging in public hotspots, generating the operational space for higher-impact actions against aviation-related targets. There will be a roughly even chance that known terrorist groups, such as ISIS, will draw inspiration from the operational effectiveness of the Turkish Airlines incident, likely adopting the use of public connections’ low cost and anonymity advantage to deliver multiple threats to aircraft.  Threat actors will likely use these multiple threat hoaxes through hotspot network creation to cause disruptions and force aircraft diversions or emergency landings, very likely saturating emergency response towards such aircraft. Overwhelming the security systems will likely enable these actors to conduct a more sophisticated attack simultaneously within the airport or nearby areas, very likely targeting key infrastructure locations or crowded public spaces to maximize damage.  

Date: January 18, 2026

Location: Chile

Parties involved: Chilean President Gabriel Boric; Chile; incoming President José Antonio Kast; Boric administration; National Forestry Corporation (CONAF); local authorities; authorities;  military units; military personnel; police patrols; arsonists; suspected perpetrators

The event: Widespread wildfires across multiple regions have forced the government to declare a state of catastrophe.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• The state of catastrophe declaration will very likely put sustained pressure on Chile’s emergency response system by complicating coordination efforts due to ambiguity in the multi-command structure between CONAF, local authorities, and military units. Overlap in CONAF and military personnel’s chain of command will likely cause decision-making bottlenecks and friction in prioritisation for critical areas of need, such as drier zones, likely due to conflicting protocols and uncertainty in responsibilities. There will be a roughly even chance that these bottlenecks will create disagreements and miscommunication between CONAF and the military over which authority has decisional power, with the risk of issuing contradicting commands to on-field units and requiring additional alignment meetings. These frictions between authorities will have a roughly even chance of resulting in the limited and delayed deployment of resources to combat the fires, allowing smaller fires to expand and contribute to the severity of the emergency.  

• Kast will likely seek to exploit the declaration of the state of catastrophe to increase his political capital, very likely promoting his conservative agenda during the reconstruction and recovery phase of the emergency. To gain support, Kast will very likely strategically engage with Boric administration throughout the emergency management cycle, likely aiming to appear cooperative while distancing himself from the current government’s wildfire response. The future government will very likely build its narrative by contrasting the 2024 Valparaíso wildfire recovery plan with its future approach for the current situation, including the investigation and punishment of suspected perpetrators. Factors such as allegations of arsonists behind major fires will very likely give Kast the chance to promote a securitarian approach to wildfire prevention and management, very likely supporting increased police patrols and military involvement in emergency plans.

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[1] Flight, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] “Bomb at 9.30”, the fake message on a wifi that has forced an emergency landing at Barcelona airport, El Pais, January 2026, https://elpais.com/espana/catalunya/2026-01-15/un-avion-procedente-de-turquia-aterriza-de-emergencia-en-barcelona-por-una-amenaza-de-explosivo.html (translated by Google)

[3] Chile declares 'state of catastrophe' as wildfires leave at least 18 dead, BBC, January 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7ypw4rjrzo