FLASH ALERT: RISK OF STATE REPRESSION HEIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER’S FUNERAL PROCESSION
- 23 minutes ago
- 9 min read
Sasha Sánchez, Kendall McElwee, Hermione Goux, Michela Sereno, Alexandra Valdez, Jared Carvente, Cristiana Harless, Alessandro Portolano, Critical Reports Team
Khushi Salian, Giovanni Lamberti, Embedded Editor; Alessandro Portolano, Junior Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
July 4, 2026
Iranian Flag[1]
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to residents in the Iranian cities selected for the state funeral of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei following the Islamic Republic’s announcement of the procession route and list of attendees.[2] The ceremony will start on July 4, 2026, at 0600 local time and will end on July 9, 2026, postponed after initially planned for March, due to the ongoing armed conflict with the US and Israel.[3] The Iranian cities of Tehran and Qom, as well as the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala, will hold ceremonial events before the ceremonial burial in Mashhad, the birthplace of the former Supreme Leader. Authorities expect 15 to 20 million attendees, with several high-level individuals such as former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Pakistani Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif, and Chinese parliamentary leader He Wei.[4] It is unclear if the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will attend the state funeral.[5] These gatherings represent a risk for Iranian citizens, as host cities could be the target of attacks, compounding casualty risk.[6] Iranian security forces pose a threat to regime opponents, journalists, activists, and civilians in the event of anti-government demonstrations during the event.[7] Iran will use the funeral ceremonies to portray the martyrdom of Ali Khamenei against foreign aggressors, which increases the risks for anti-regime supporters to carry out demonstrations due to heavy monitoring by Iranian intelligence services.[8]
CTG is on HIGH alert for civilians, journalists, regime opponents, and the Iranian regime, as state funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei will VERY LIKELY draw millions of attendees under a wartime security posture. The concentration of senior political, military, and foreign officials at funeral events will VERY LIKELY pose risks of attempted sabotage and attacks by anti-regime factions LIKELY to leverage the ceremony for military and political gains. As a result, Iranian authorities will VERY LIKELY maintain elevated security measures throughout the mourning period, including expanded checkpoints, restricted access to key ceremonial sites, and surrounding transportation infrastructure. Iranian authorities will VERY LIKELY implement restricted movement protocols around ceremonial proceedings, heightened military and police deployments, transportation disruptions, and expanded surveillance to protect funeral events and to deter any other threats. Security forces will LIKELY respond quickly to any anti-regime demonstrations or attempts to disrupt the ceremonies, with a low tolerance for unauthorized gatherings. Enhanced measures deployed during the mourning period will VERY LIKELY be justified by the heightened threat of war, LIKELY deepening surveillance and restriction protocols against dissidents. The funeral processions will VERY LIKELY serve to demonstrate regime legitimacy and national unity, LIKELY increasing the risk of arrests or intimidation against individuals perceived as enemies of the Islamic Republic.
Introduction
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel carried out military operations against Iranian targets, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several of his family members.[9] After repeated wartime-related delays, the Iranian Regime initiated funerary preparations for Iran’s former political and spiritual leader on July 3, 2026.[10] The ceremony will begin July 4, 0600 local time, with a three-day viewing of Khamenei’s coffin at the Grand Imam Khomeini Palace in Tehran.[11] Approximately 15 to 20 million attendees will be in the capital for the event, including senior representatives from Russia, China, and Pakistan.[12] The funeral procession will then continue to various Shi’ite religious and historical sites, including Qom, before moving towards the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala.[13] On July 9, Khamenei’s funeral rites, as well as those of his deceased family members, will conclude at the leader’s birthplace in Mashhad, with his burial at the Imam Reza Shrine.[14]
The Iranian regime has arranged transportation, accommodations, and provided food for supporters coming from different parts of the country to bolster attendance, signal strength, and national unity.[15] Security presence will be heavy in and around ceremonial locations and major gathering points, including parks and major transit nodes.[16] Law enforcement will be supported by Basij paramilitary units and IRGC-linked elements to manage crowds, perimeter security, and general order during mass gatherings.[17] Large areas of central Tehran will be closed off to automobiles, particularly routes leading to major ceremony venues and government districts.[18] Consistent with previous high-profile ceremonies, Iranian authorities have implemented extensive security measures in cities included in the spiritual procession, including heightened surveillance, expanded law enforcement checkpoints, movement restrictions, and a low tolerance for unauthorized gatherings, to prevent potential unrest, ensure the security of senior officials, and key ceremonial sites.[19]
Analysis
Leadership Dynamics
The funeral ceremonies will very likely serve as a demonstration of the Iranian regime's ability to maintain stability following the loss of its longtime leader. Iranian authorities will very likely instrumentalize the presence of millions of mourners to project national unity and leadership continuity. The regime will likely exercise heightened security measures to prevent unrest and disruptions, though isolated demonstrations will likely remain possible. The presence of large-scale protests, riots, or civil unrest will likely weaken the regime’s appearance of control at a critical time of transition, exposing potential fractures within the political establishment.
The public presence of senior military officials, political leaders, and the potential first appearance of the new Supreme Leader will very likely signal a consolidated, united national leadership, ostensibly underscoring Iran’s message of resistance against foreign pressure. These appearances and accompanying speeches will likely platform Iran's rising political elite who aim to cultivate an image of strength while subtly conveying continuity in governance with the late Supreme Leader. Additional attendance by foreign delegates will very likely indicate diplomatic support from Tehran’s allies and signal continued partnership under a new political leadership.
State Repression
Security forces will very likely respond to perceived anti-government demonstrations rapidly to deter public expressions of regime opposition from overshadowing the ceremony. Security forces will likely enact coercive measures as seen in January 2026, including the use of deadly force and detention. Heightened security responses will likely discourage opposition demonstrations while increasing the risk of confrontation between security personnel and attendees. With millions of participants, there is a roughly even chance that security forces misread the actions of large crowds and inadvertently target unaffiliated civilians as opposition. There is a roughly even chance Iranian forces will have to apply a low threshold for intervention, eager to prevent an incident that undermines national unity, increasing the risk of escalatory security actions such as opening fire on crowds.
Iranian intelligence services will very likely intensify their internet and communications monitoring to detect sabotage attempts against the ceremony, likely violating the privacy of citizens, including those who are not considered political opponents. There is a roughly even chance that Iranian authorities will temporarily suspend communication services to hinder the organization of anti-regime actors in areas where ceremonies will be taking place. Military forces will likely establish security checkpoints across Iran to detect potentially threatening individuals or tactical equipment, likely resulting in arbitrary detentions, increasing the use of intimidation practices and physical attacks against journalists and activists.
Propaganda
State authorities will very likely amplify coverage of the funeral through official and unofficial state media networks, aiming to portray the martyrdom of Ali Khamenei against foreign aggressors. The regime will likely draw heavily on Shi’ite religious doctrine, particularly the themes of martyrdom and resistance, framing Khamenei's death as part of a broader struggle against perceived American and Israeli aggression. Ceremonies held at sites of religious and cultural importance, including Qom, Najaf, and Karbala, will very likely carry significant propaganda value. Officials will very likely draw parallels between the death of Ali Khamenei and the legendary Shi’ite figure Imam Hussain, killed by a powerful foreign army.
Iranian authorities will likely coerce citizen participation in the event to project an image of national unity, including workplace mandates requiring employees to attend processions, threats against businesses that remain open on ceremony days, and requirements that organizations provide. The former Iranian Supreme Leader’s death will likely serve anti-American and Israel propaganda, very likely leveraging Shi’ite religious doctrine of martyrdom through his and his family’s death. The funeral, being on July 4, the United States Independence Day, is likely to be instrumentalized in an anti-American and anti-Israel way, emphasizing martyrdom at the hands of the West.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that Iranian authorities implement crowd flow management measures in high-risk areas to reduce the likelihood of crowd crush incidents by ensuring unobstructed, visible emergency exits and providing specific guidance for navigating the crowds at the entry of each ceremonial event.
Iranian and Iraqi authorities should establish designated assistance points for foreign nationals, journalists, and civilians near the ceremonial sites to reduce the risk of delayed access to emergency care for injured individuals.
Iranian authorities should establish multiple public communication channels to send Iranians real-time updates to their phones and television on route changes, security restrictions, emergency incidents, and evacuation procedures.
Iranian authorities should maintain an elevated security posture in urban centers and transportation hubs following the conclusion of the funeral ceremonies to deter retaliatory attacks or opportunistic acts of violence that may occur as crowds disperse and restrictions are lifted.
Security units and ambulances should be positioned at accessible locations during mass gatherings to reduce emergency response times.
Emergency services in Tehran, Qom, Najaf, Karbala, and Mashhad should deploy a large number of health and security personnel before the event to enable rapid emergency responses to incidents involving large crowds.
Traffic authorities should implement traffic management measures in host cities, including traffic diversions, dedicated emergency lanes, and signal prioritization, to prevent congestion that could delay first responders.
Medical NGOs operating in Iran, including the Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRFC) and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), should implement a standardized incident-reporting protocol along with local authorities to monitor casualties from heat exposure, crowd crush, or use-of-force incidents by aggregating patient data in real time to prompt resource allocation.
Activists attending the ceremonies should share their personal details and planned movements with a designated contact outside the event area, such as a trusted NGO representative, to enable rapid identification and legal or medical support in the event of an incident.
Attendees should set a check-in time with a trusted contact, such as a family member or friend, to immediately alert legal and medical support if they don't respond.
CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the convergence of millions of civilians across multiple urban centers under a wartime security posture during the funeral ceremonies of former Supreme Leader Khamenei. The scale of gatherings, combined with heightened tensions amid conflict with the US and Israel, will very likely increase the likelihood and severity of any security incident, including crowd crushes, heat-related medical emergencies, isolated attacks, or rapid intervention by Iranian security forces. Civilians will very likely face movement restrictions, extensive surveillance, and an increased risk of arbitrary enforcement measures, likely stemming from authorities' perception of public behavior as threatening or disruptive. Journalists, activists, and humanitarian personnel will likely remain at high risk of detention or intimidation. The presence of senior officials and foreign delegations will very likely require additional security measures, further restricting civilian movement and complicating emergency response. Misinformation or rumors surrounding security incidents will very likely spread rapidly through large crowds, likely increasing panic and uncontrolled crowd movements. Similar mass gatherings in Iran, including the 1989 funeral of Ruhollah Khomeini, resulted in deadly crowd crushes, almost certainly demonstrating the risk associated with events of this scale. The expected attendance and ongoing regional tensions will likely increase the risk of a localized incident, which will very likely disrupt authorities’ security planning efforts.
Analysis indicates there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that the funeral ceremonies will be accompanied by heightened and widespread security measures, movement restrictions, and an increased risk of security incidents in and around gathering sites. Iranian authorities will VERY LIKELY use the funeral to project national unity, reinforce regime legitimacy, and demonstrate the continued strength of the Islamic Republic following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The presence of senior officials, foreign delegates, and millions of attendees will VERY LIKELY increase the risk of crowd control incidents, while the government will ALMOST CERTAINLY maintain an elevated security posture to deter protests, terrorist attacks, or any perceived acts of dissent. State authorities will VERY LIKELY draw from the Shi’ite religious doctrine to frame the leader’s death as an example of martyrdom, which will LIKELY operate as anti-American and Israeli propaganda.
[1] Iranian flag, generated by a third-party image database (created by AI)
[2] Iran is preparing for the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed by the United States and Israel at the start of the war, Infobae, July 2026
[3] Ibid
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] Iran warns US, Israel against attacks ahead of funeral processions for Khamenei, Reuters, July 2026
[7] Iranian mourning ceremonies prompt new crackdowns in echo of 1979 revolution, Reuters, February 2026
[8] Country policy and information note: social media, surveillance and sur place activities, Iran, April 2025 (accessible), Government UK, July 2026
[9] U.S. and Israeli Military Operations Against Iran: Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12662/IN12662.2.pdf
[10] Ibid
[11] Iran is preparing for the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed by the United States and Israel at the start of the war, Infobae, July 2026
[12] Ibid
[13] Iran prepares to bury slain supreme leader with week of mass mourning, Reuters, July 2026
[14] Iranian leaders pay respects to supreme leader as Tehran prepares for funeral, France 24, July 2026
[15] Iran is preparing for the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed by the United States and Israel at the start of the war, Infobae, July 2026
[16] Khamenei lies in state in Tehran as Iran begins week of funeral ceremonies, Reuters, July 2026
[17] Ibid
[18] Iranian leaders pay respects to supreme leader as Tehran prepares for funeral, France 24, July 2026
[19] Ibid