FRANCE SUSPENDS ITS COUNTERTERRORISM COOPERATION WITH MALI, AND RUSSIA MODIFIES ITS 152 MM 2S19M2 MSTA-S SELF-PROPELLED HOWITZERS WITH PROTECTIVE CAGES AND ELECTRONIC WARFARE ANTENNAS

September 18-24, 2025 | Issue 36 - Weapons & Tactics Team

Nimaya Premachandra, Matan Lieberman, Victoria Kotey, Agathe Labadi, W/T

Elizabeth Fignar, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Desert Military Operation^[1]

Date: September 19, 2025

Location: Mali

Parties involved: Mali; Malian military-led government; regional governments in Sahel; military-led Sahelian governments; Islamist insurgent groups in Mali; terrorist group Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM); terrorist group Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS); foreign fighters; civilians in the Sahel; state-sponsored media outlet African Initiative; local social media influencers; France; Russia; Niger; Burkina Faso; Western allies; EU The event: France has decided to suspend counterterrorism (CT) cooperation with Mali.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Russia will very likely exploit this suspension in its disinformation campaigns to undermine France and Western allies' military impact in the Sahel, likely capitalizing on the existing frustration and anti-Western feelings of the regional governments. Russia will very likely use state-sponsored media outlets, such as African Initiative, and local social media influencers to promote anti-colonialist sentiment and amplify the failures of Western development efforts in the Sahel, almost certainly adapting its narratives to the regional contexts. In an attempt to increase partnership with military-led governments in the region, Russia will very likely portray itself as a viable security and assistance partner free of human rights or democratic preconditions. An increase in Russian disinformation campaigns will likely result in Sahelian opposition to Western aid and investment, very likely complicating future cooperation between the EU and military-led Sahelian countries.

• France’s CT suspension in Mali will likely deteriorate democracy in the African country. Mali will likely push to develop stronger CT operations with other military-led Sahel countries, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, very likely creating these partnerships to preserve authoritarianism and avoid potential sanctions from the West. These relationships will likely normalize restrictions on democratic values for the Malian military-led government, very likely resulting in a decrease in fair elections and press freedom.  

• The suspension will likely embolden Islamist insurgent groups in Mali, such as JNIM and ISGS, to increase the level of their operations. Insurgent groups will likely increase the use of IEDs and kidnappings as tactics, very likely targeting and harming civilians disproportionately and decreasing confidence in the government. Terrorist groups will very likely exploit the suspension to consolidate and expand territory around strategic locations, likely taking advantage of low border security measures to increase recruitment and smuggle foreign fighters into the country. The growing power of terrorist groups in the region will very likely inhibit effective CT responses in Mali in the short term, likely leading to an increase in cross-border attacks in the rest of the region.

Date: September 22, 2025

Location: Ukraine

Parties involved: Russia; Russian armed forces; Ukraine; Ukrainian drone operators; NATO; NATO-Ukrainian Joint Analysis Training and Education Center (JATEC); Eastern European NATO members

The event: Russia modified its 152 mm 2S19M2 Msta-S self-propelled howitzers with protective cages and electronic warfare (EW) antennas to defend against Ukrainian drone attacks.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Ukraine will very likely adopt new strategies for its drone warfare to counter the Russian 2S19M2 howitzers’ improvements that extend the survivability of its weaponry. Kyiv will very likely increase the use of AI-powered drones, first-person view (FPV) drones, and drones attached to fiber optics to counter Russian EW antennas. The drones will likely carry increased amounts of explosives to penetrate Russian protective cages, likely leveraging heavy attacks over quantity to increase their assets’ protection. Ukrainian drone operators will likely use rapidly changing flight routes, very likely complicating Russian forces’ ability to detect and jam transmissions.

• As a first response measure, Russia will very likely continue to implement low-budget improvements to its arsenal and weapons to quickly protect against growing threats, likely trying to temporize its final countermeasures and improvements. Russia will likely incorporate more warfare techniques in the medium term, such as cyber takeovers, to counter the growing drone threat from Ukraine. Russian forces will likely launch cyber campaigns on Ukrainian drone navigation systems to access information on drone operations, including flight routes, and counter-jamming and spoofing measures. This information will likely help Moscow anticipate Ukraine's adaptations to EW measures and develop more resilient offensive and defensive systems for its artillery, almost certainly allowing Russia to mitigate future drone attacks.

• NATO will very likely seek to improve the defense readiness of its eastern flank in response to the Russian adaptations, likely seeking out low-cost, innovative Ukrainian technological solutions to Russian EW and protective cages. Ukraine will very likely increase information-sharing with NATO about effective EW-resistant drone technology, such as frequency hopping and Inertial Navigation Systems (INS), almost certainly operating through existing joint NATO-Ukrainian initiatives. NATO will likely analyze Ukrainian EW-resistant drone technology in the JATEC to enhance its procurement and adoption, very likely allowing it to mimic and deploy similar countermeasures among Eastern European NATO members.

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[1] Saharian Operation, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] France suspends counterterrorism efforts with Mali over arrest, Reuters, September 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/france-suspends-counter-terrorism-efforts-with-mali-over-arrest-sources-say-2025-09-19/

[3] Russia equips new 2S19M2 howitzers with cages and EW gear, Defence Blog, September 2025, https://defence-blog.com/russia-equips-new-2s19m2-howitzers-with-cages-and-ew-gear/