FRENCH AUTHORITIES INVESTIGATED WHETHER AN ISRAELI FIRM WAS INVOLVED IN AN INTERFERENCE CAMPAIGN AGAINST POLITICIANS, AND UKRAINE LAUNCHED A LARGE-SCALE STRIKE AGAINST TARGETS IN MOSCOW
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May 14-20, 2026 | Issue 20 - EUCOM Team
Sofia Vilas, Chiara Michieli, Fleur Van Gorp, Leon Kille
Alexia Andrica, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Online Interference Campaign[1]
Date: May 13, 2026
Location: France
Parties involved: France; Direction Générale de la Sécurité Intérieure (DGSI); Service for Vigilance and Protection against Foreign Digital Interference (VIGINUM); far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI); centrist party Renaissance; center-left parties; political contestants at different levels of governance; local politicians; local voters; voters concerned with state security; foreign actors; potential perpetrators; threat actors; actors; Israel; alleged Israel-linked cyber company BlackCore; Russia; Israel and Russia-linked groups; China; EU; Western countries; digital platforms; media
The event: France is investigating the alleged Israel-linked BlackCore firm’s involvement in a foreign interference campaign against LFI ahead of municipal elections.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The investigation will unlikely deter threat actors from targeting future French local elections, with potential perpetrators likely exploiting the weaknesses that allowed this attack to start new campaigns. Foreign actors like Israel and Russia-linked groups will likely increasingly target local-level elections through influence operations aimed at discrediting strongly supported local politicians perceived to challenge their strategic interests, very likely leveraging plausible deniability to complicate attribution efforts. Operations will likely involve coordinated online disinformation, such as false allegations of criminal behavior, targeting political contestants at different levels of governance, very likely to strain services responsible for detecting foreign interference, such as VIGINUM. Perpetrators will likely leverage EU legal constraints on content removal and deficiencies within media content moderation systems to prolong influence campaigns targeting local elections, with a roughly even chance of some campaigns persisting long enough to shape local voters’ perceptions before digital platforms remove deceptive content.
LFI will likely leverage the DGSI investigation to gain political advantage by calling for more stringent foreign-interference regulations ahead of the next presidential elections. LFI will very likely attempt to build political momentum around this event, likely reframing the debate on foreign interference to include more actors than those traditionally targeted, such as Russia and China, and making existing legislation more suitable to counter attacks coming from Western countries. The call for stronger regulations against foreign electoral interference will likely appeal to voters concerned with state security, with a roughly even chance of a significant shift in traditionally centrist electoral base towards LFI’s more radical positions. LFI will likely seek bilateral approval to strengthen French legislation against electoral interference, establishing issue-specific alliances with other political formations, such as Renaissance and center-left parties, to secure the electoral environment before the 2027 elections.
Date: May 17, 2026
Location: Moscow, Russia
Parties involved: Ukraine; Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU); UAV industry; Russia; Russian state; government; the Kremlin; state-controlled media; citizens; interpersonal networks; international actors
The event: Ukraine launched a large-scale overnight strike on military and infrastructure targets in the Moscow region, causing civilian casualties and damage.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Long-range drone strikes inside Russian metropolitan regions will likely limit the government’s ability to control the war narrative through disinformation strategies, shifting public perception of the war. Strikes on major cities, such as Moscow, will very likely become more frequent, likely highlighting the Russian state’s failure to strengthen its air-defense systems despite portraying itself, through state-controlled media, as capable of protecting its citizens. Russian censorship techniques will likely widen the gap between official assurances and lived reality, very likely undermining state narratives that portray Ukraine as militarily weak and incapable of threatening Russia. Russian censorship measures will likely face difficulties in controlling the narrative as footage and reporting of strikes spreads through interpersonal networks, very likely fostering discrepancies between citizens who accept official narratives and those exposed to alternative interpretations, complicating the Kremlin’s ability to sustain domestic support for the war over time.
Ukraine will likely credit its nationally developed equipment for the successful attack to improve the balance of power against Russia and demonstrate the effectiveness of its military capabilities to international actors. The bypassing of Russian air defense and the range of the attack will very likely contribute to improving international perceptions of Ukrainian drone systems, likely repositioning Ukraine as a more self-sufficient military actor. Kyiv will very likely rely on its experience in drone warfare to internationally promote its domestic UAV industry as a cost-effective alternative to missiles, likely aiming to secure additional bilateral agreements to increase production and strengthen equipment resupply. AFU will very likely build on the success of this strike to conduct similar, coordinated attacks against critical targets, including in highly media-covered areas such as the Moscow region, to gain a military and mediatic advantage.
[1] Hacker, generated by a third party database
[2] France probes whether Israeli firm BlackCore interfered in local elections, sources say, Reuters, May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/france-probeFrenchFrenchs-whether-israeli-firm-blackcore-interfered-local-elections-sources-2026-05-13/
[3] Ukraine attack on Moscow region 'completely fair response,' Zelensky says, The Kyiv Independent, May 2026,
