TURKEY RESUMES DISCUSSIONS WITH THE USA ON POTENTIAL REINTEGRATION INTO THE F-35 PROGRAM, AND RUSSIA CONDUCTS A COMBAT DRILL WITH AN ARMORED TRAIN IN UKRAINE

June 26-July 2, 2025 | Issue 24 - Weapons & Tactics Team

Isabelle Hilyer-Jones, Miles Reever, Nicholas Novak, Sarah Nag, Sue Friend, Laura Fuchs, Giovanni Lamberti, Agathe Labadi

Sakura Morales Furuta, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

F-35 Lightning II^[1]

Date: June 26, 2025

Location: Turkey

Parties involved: Turkey; Turkish defense industries; US; France; Italy; Russia; NATO; NATO members; regional states; foreign weapon suppliers

The event: Turkey is resuming technical-level discussions with the US on potential F-35 reintegration, despite US concerns regarding Turkey’s acquisition of Russian S-400.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Turkey has a roughly even chance of acquiring the F-35 to increase its internal defense industry’s capabilities by using them to build operational experience and know-how in materials engineering for airpower and carrier-based technologies. To compensate for the current technological gap, Turkish defense industries will very likely reverse engineer the F-35 platform to incorporate sensitive technologies like radar absorption and next-generation propulsion into domestic projects, such as the TAI Turkish Fighter (TAI TF Kaan), reducing foreign weapon suppliers’ ability to influence Turkey’s operational decisions. There is a roughly even chance that Turkey will seek to replicate parts of the F-35 internally to improve its materials and aerospace engineering expertise, likely risking supply chain and sensitive system diagnostic exposure. Turkey will likely attempt to procure the F-35B for the TCG Anadolu (L-400) and the F-35C for future National Aircraft Carriers (MUGEMs), likely enhancing its ability to conduct joint-domain operations and precision strikes, and filling the gap with regional states’ power projection capabilities, like France and Italy.

• Turkey will likely attempt to compartmentalize its S-400 and F-35 operations, very likely developing independent Command and Control (C2) systems to mitigate NATO security concerns and secure reintegration into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program. They will likely create separate and complementary chains of command to limit information sharing between platforms, very likely preventing the exposure of F-35 capabilities and vulnerabilities to Russian exploitation. Turkey will likely promote this compartmentalization effort as evidence of its commitment to NATO, very likely seeking to rebuild trust and regain access to broader NATO defense programs such as deeper participation in the Integrated Air and Missile Defence (IAMD). This compartmentalization approach will likely lead to increased NATO’s management of alliance members to combine divergent defense ties while maintaining information confidentiality, likely setting a precedent for balancing national sovereignty with collective security priorities.

Date: June 29, 2025

Location: Ukraine

Parties involved: Russia; Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation; Russian logistical units; Russian armored trains crew members; Russian senior military officials; Ukraine; Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (HUR); Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)

The event: The Russian armored train Yenisey conducts a “combat coordination” drill in occupied territory in Ukraine, signaling enhanced supply lines protection against Ukrainian attacks.^[3] 

Analysis & Implications:

• The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation will very likely repurpose armored trains to reinforce frontline logistics mobility, very likely addressing traditional Russian supply lines’ vulnerabilities. This strategic shift from using armored trains primarily for the secure transport of senior military officials to supporting rapid, flexible supply and troop movements along contested rail corridors very likely aims to maintain operational tempo. The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation will very likely direct specialized railway troops and logistical brigades to conduct more frequent and complex drills with armored trains, aiming to enhance their ability to adapt to evolving battlefield threats such as Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes, sabotage, and precision-guided munitions. Russian logistical units will likely integrate advanced counter-drone technologies such as signal jamming and electronic warfare suites aboard armored trains, likely enabling these assets to create electronic safe corridors along key rail routes to complicate Ukrainian efforts to interdict Russian logistics.

• HUR will very likely intensify TB2 drone and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) strikes against armored-train movements along the Donetsk-Mariupol rail corridor, likely following on with sabotage operations. Ukrainian targeteers will likely prioritize attacks on locomotives and bridge approaches to maximize operational disruption per strike and diminish Russian efficiency and operability, as Russia will unlikely repair their single-point failure within 48 hours. By focusing on the Yenisey’s critical mobility nodes, such as flatcars or coupling assemblies, Ukrainian strike intensification will very likely systematically degrade its ability to conduct combat coordination drills and rapid redeployment. To enhance the operational disruption by strike, Ukrainian forces will likely intensify sabotage efforts against the train and adjacent infrastructure, likely to disable onboard artillery systems, by separating the ammunition wagon from the gunfire one or apprehending crew members for intelligence exploitation.

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[1] Sortie showdown: U.S., French and Finnish jets take the skies for Atlantic Trident 25, by Airman 1st Class Sierra Casteel licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)

[2] Turkey hopes for progress on F-35 jets after Trump meeting, Erdogan says, Reuters, June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/turkey-hopes-progress-f-35-jets-after-trump-meeting-erdogan-says-2025-06-26/

[3] Russia secures supply lines with armored trains, Defence Blog, June 2025, https://defence-blog.com/russia-secures-supply-lines-with-armored-trains/